Catching a specific tagged fish

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    Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:39pm
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So i was thinking about the odds over catching a specific tagged prize fish.

What do you think the odds are of catching a specific tagged fish given the area of the ocean, how many fish are in the ocean, the distance a fish can travel in a single day given a limited fish zone, limited time, how hungry the fish is, and if it would even be on the feed after being tagged.


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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote gmacx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:48pm
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Apparently something like 1:8mill according to the paper
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote A LOAF OF BREAD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:50pm
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Yea. I mean nothing is impossible but i had a fair idea the odds would be massive after using a bit of logic and the basic math.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote John H Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 4:06pm
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Agree that it is unlikely but some people may not see it that way, and go hard for as long as they can.

The recent announcement of a 10 day fishing contest format offering a $1,000,000 prize to catch a specific tagged snapper has many of our supporters asking for a position statement from LegaSea.

LegaSea’s concern is that catching and releasing large numbers of snapper day after day in pursuit of an extraordinary prize will increase the wastage of fish.

Our policy is to reduce waste and encourage people to conserve fish in order to accelerate the rebuild of the snapper fishery.

LegaSea cannot support this event format.


See LegaSea Snapper 1 policy here http://www.legasea.co.nz/documents/Snapper1-Policy-Oct12.pdf
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I bet the odds they say of 1:8mill is just the basic rough guess of how many fish there are to one, as reserches guess how many fish there are to give quota.  10 fish in a tank, the odds of catching a certain one is 1:10

If you take all the other factors like i said in the original post i think it would mutiply the odds majorly. Or maybe  'chance' is a better word to use. There is much more to it.

I think its more someone has a better chance of winning the biggest lottery in the world that catching one of these fish.

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Originally posted by John H John H wrote:

]Agree that it is unlikely but some people may not see it that way, and go hard for as long as they can.

The recent announcement of a 10 day fishing contest format offering a $1,000,000 prize to catch a specific tagged snapper has many of our supporters asking for a position statement from LegaSea.

LegaSea’s concern is that catching and releasing large numbers of snapper day after day in pursuit of an extraordinary prize will increase the wastage of fish.

Our policy is to reduce waste and encourage people to conserve fish in order to accelerate the rebuild of the snapper fishery.

LegaSea cannot support this event format.


See LegaSea Snapper 1 policy here http://www.legasea.co.nz/documents/Snapper1-Policy-Oct12.pdf

Agreed.... that format doesn't sit well with me.....
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chanses are it'll get scooped up in a com's  trawl net....he may be able to purchase a bigger boat!
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Originally posted by gollyfish gollyfish wrote:

chanses are it'll get scooped up in a com's  trawl net....he may be able to purchase a bigger boat!

It could turn the opposite and for the better. The comm might then retire, so that leaves more fish for us to catch. Thumbs Up. I mean who would want to pull nets all day after winning that prize? lol.


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Originally posted by A LOAF OF BREAD A LOAF OF BREAD wrote:

So i was thinking about the odds over catching a specific tagged prize fish.

What do you think the odds are of catching a specific tagged fish given the area of the ocean, how many fish are in the ocean, the distance a fish can travel in a single day given a limited fish zone, limited time, how hungry the fish is, and if it would even be on the feed after being tagged.


yes not the best thought out contest considering how many fish could die from releasing,
the odds definitely are in favour of the fish not being caught,
any fish tagged will be stressed and not likely to feed for a few days or more which will even reduce the odds further,
wounder how many will try their luck?

 
  
Thanks for everything you did for us Eric. may you rest in peace, You were one of the real legends of NZ recreational fishing
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote A LOAF OF BREAD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 1:31pm
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Originally posted by Lethal Lethal wrote:

Originally posted by A LOAF OF BREAD A LOAF OF BREAD wrote:

So i was thinking about the odds over catching a specific tagged prize fish.

What do you think the odds are of catching a specific tagged fish given the area of the ocean, how many fish are in the ocean, the distance a fish can travel in a single day given a limited fish zone, limited time, how hungry the fish is, and if it would even be on the feed after being tagged.


yes not the best thought out contest considering how many fish could die from releasing,
the odds definitely are in favour of the fish not being caught,
any fish tagged will be stressed and not likely to feed for a few days or more which will even reduce the odds further,
wounder how many will try their luck?

 
  

True that. That was one thing i thought of. After being caught and tagged its not going to feed for a few days. 

Like the other years the 1 tagged fish and 2 days to catch it. 

Like you said how many are going to try there luck and how many fish may die from releasing.

Do the people who run these tournaments think of these things?
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote pjc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 2:20pm
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why do they always tag snapper as a species?why not tag a gurnard,then lets see how many can be caught in 10 days?as we know there very few around the gulf now days.theory being caught snapper will taken ho,e and not become mortality statistics.
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Originally posted by pjc pjc wrote:

why do they always tag snapper as a species?why not tag a gurnard,then lets see how many can be caught in 10 days?as we know there very few around the gulf now days.theory being caught snapper will taken ho,e and not become mortality statistics.


True that. Why is it almost always about snapper. What is so great about snapper.

Give me a guarnard anyday. 

Plus there is way more fun and action hooking a KY on light gear or hooking on a nice Kingi than landing a pan snapper.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote pjc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 9:33am
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just received a pamphlet about this contest
30,000 anglers expected and proceeds to coastguard,entry fee $99?
now multiply anglers by fee equals about 300k? and prizes around 1.5 million.so why not just donate the 1.5 million and forget the contest and save loss of snapper? 
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Big Manly Yaka Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:21am
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I assume the 1.5 million will be insured and not necessarily paid out. If no one finds the right tag the underwriters don't have to pay. Again I'm guessing the organisers will have the insurance premium come out of the proceeds and the rest goes to CC.

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Kevin.S Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:25am
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Because they don't have the prize money. A competitions like this is probably done by the organiser taking out an insurance policy against anyone catching the fish. They pay the insurance premium, and if anyone catches the fish the insurance policy will pay the prize money out. It is like any other insurance, a calculated risk for the insurance company -the people who calculate these risks, actuaries, are very highly paid.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Kevin.S Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:28am
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Just a thought, but if there is an insurance company willing to take this on at an affordable cost to the organisers then they must have worked out there is virtually no chance of anyone catching the tagged fish. I think you would have a higher chance of getting a return on your investment if you bought $99 of lotto tickets, and we all know how likely that is.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Kezza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:34am
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Originally posted by Kevin.S Kevin.S wrote:

Just a thought, but if there is an insurance company willing to take this on at an affordable cost to the organisers then they must have worked out there is virtually no chance of anyone catching the tagged fish. I think you would have a higher chance of getting a return on your investment if you bought $99 of lotto tickets, and we all know how likely that is.

Correct Kevin….an example of more inshore wastage at the hands of commercial greed….this time only dressed up as 'recreational' fishing fun.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 11:40am
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Originally posted by Kezza Kezza wrote:

Originally posted by Kevin.S Kevin.S wrote:

Just a thought, but if there is an insurance company willing to take this on at an affordable cost to the organisers then they must have worked out there is virtually no chance of anyone catching the tagged fish. I think you would have a higher chance of getting a return on your investment if you bought $99 of lotto tickets, and we all know how likely that is.

Correct Kevin….an example of more inshore wastage at the hands of commercial greed….this time only dressed up as 'recreational' fishing fun.


Well perceived Kezza.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote catch1t Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 9:30am
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I actually reckon it would be hypocritical of rec fishers to enter this comp..

this will be open slather on a scale we've not seen before..

Kezza's gurnard vid will have nothing on this.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote pjc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 10:09am
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my wife wanted to enter,I pointed out to her they asking us to damage our fisheries even further by catching and releasing until we got a tagged fish,and its not going to happen,now she now agrees
(first for me,a woman agreeing)
Sex at 58.Lucky I live at 56
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