Catching a specific tagged fish
Printed From: The Fishing Website
Category: Saltwater Fishing
Forum Name: The Briny Bar
Forum Description: The place for general chat on saltwater fishing!
URL: https://www.fishing.net.nz/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=107210
Printed Date: 15 Jun 2026 at 10:17pm
Topic: Catching a specific tagged fish
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Subject: Catching a specific tagged fish
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:39pm
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So i was thinking about the odds over catching a specific tagged prize fish. What do you think the odds are of catching a specific tagged fish given the area of the ocean, how many fish are in the ocean, the distance a fish can travel in a single day given a limited fish zone, limited time, how hungry the fish is, and if it would even be on the feed after being tagged. |
Replies:
Posted By: gmacx
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:48pm
| Apparently something like 1:8mill according to the paper |
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 3:50pm
| Yea. I mean nothing is impossible but i had a fair idea the odds would be massive after using a bit of logic and the basic math. |
Posted By: John H
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2015 at 4:06pm
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Agree that it is unlikely but some people may not see it that way, and go hard for as long as they can. The recent announcement of a 10 day fishing contest format offering a $1,000,000 prize to catch a specific tagged snapper has many of our supporters asking for a position statement from LegaSea. LegaSea’s concern is that catching and releasing large numbers of snapper day after day in pursuit of an extraordinary prize will increase the wastage of fish. Our policy is to reduce waste and encourage people to conserve fish in order to accelerate the rebuild of the snapper fishery. LegaSea cannot support this event format. See LegaSea Snapper 1 policy here http://www.legasea.co.nz/documents/Snapper1-Policy-Oct12.pdf |
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 11:09am
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I bet the odds they say of 1:8mill is just the basic rough guess of how many fish there are to one, as reserches guess how many fish there are to give quota. 10 fish in a tank, the odds of catching a certain one is 1:10 If you take all the other factors like i said in the original post i think it would mutiply the odds majorly. Or maybe 'chance' is a better word to use. There is much more to it. I think its more someone has a better chance of winning the biggest lottery in the world that catching one of these fish. |
Posted By: Wefaknis
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 11:15am
Agreed.... that format doesn't sit well with me.....
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John H wrote:Posted By: gollyfish
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 12:15pm
| chanses are it'll get scooped up in a com's trawl net....he may be able to purchase a bigger boat! |
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 12:55pm
It could turn the opposite and for the better. The comm might then retire, so that leaves more fish for us to catch.  . I mean who would want to pull nets all day after winning that prize? lol. |
Posted By: Lethal
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 1:15pm
yes not the best thought out contest considering how many fish could die from releasing, the odds definitely are in favour of the fish not being caught, any fish tagged will be stressed and not likely to feed for a few days or more which will even reduce the odds further, wounder how many will try their luck? ------------- Thanks for everything you did for us Eric. may you rest in peace, You were one of the real legends of NZ recreational fishing |
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 1:31pm
True that. That was one thing i thought of. After being caught and tagged its not going to feed for a few days. Like the other years the 1 tagged fish and 2 days to catch it. Like you said how many are going to try there luck and how many fish may die from releasing. Do the people who run these tournaments think of these things?
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Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 2:20pm
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why do they always tag snapper as a species?why not tag a gurnard,then lets see how many can be caught in 10 days?as we know there very few around the gulf now days.theory being caught snapper will taken ho,e and not become mortality statistics. ------------- Sex at 58.Lucky I live at 56 |
Posted By: A LOAF OF BREAD
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2015 at 2:58pm
True that. Why is it almost always about snapper. What is so great about snapper. Give me a guarnard anyday. Plus there is way more fun and action hooking a KY on light gear or hooking on a nice Kingi than landing a pan snapper.
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Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 9:33am
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just received a pamphlet about this contest 30,000 anglers expected and proceeds to coastguard,entry fee $99? now multiply anglers by fee equals about 300k? and prizes around 1.5 million.so why not just donate the 1.5 million and forget the contest and save loss of snapper? ------------- Sex at 58.Lucky I live at 56 |
Posted By: Big Manly Yaka
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:21am
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I assume the 1.5 million will be insured and not necessarily paid out. If no one finds the right tag the underwriters don't have to pay. Again I'm guessing the organisers will have the insurance premium come out of the proceeds and the rest goes to CC. |
Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:25am
| Because they don't have the prize money. A competitions like this is probably done by the organiser taking out an insurance policy against anyone catching the fish. They pay the insurance premium, and if anyone catches the fish the insurance policy will pay the prize money out. It is like any other insurance, a calculated risk for the insurance company -the people who calculate these risks, actuaries, are very highly paid. |
Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:28am
| Just a thought, but if there is an insurance company willing to take this on at an affordable cost to the organisers then they must have worked out there is virtually no chance of anyone catching the tagged fish. I think you would have a higher chance of getting a return on your investment if you bought $99 of lotto tickets, and we all know how likely that is. |
Posted By: Kezza
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 10:34am
Correct Kevin….an example of more inshore wastage at the hands of commercial greed….this time only dressed up as 'recreational' fishing fun. ------------- http://www.legasea.co.nz" rel="nofollow"> 
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Posted By: cirrus
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2015 at 11:40am
Well perceived Kezza. |
Posted By: catch1t
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 9:30am
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I actually reckon it would be hypocritical of rec fishers to enter this comp.. this will be open slather on a scale we've not seen before.. Kezza's gurnard vid will have nothing on this.
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Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 10:09am
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my wife wanted to enter,I pointed out to her they asking us to damage our fisheries even further by catching and releasing until we got a tagged fish,and its not going to happen,now she now agrees (first for me,a woman agreeing) ------------- Sex at 58.Lucky I live at 56 |
Posted By: cirrus
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 10:40am
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Seems ironic that considering the flack recreational give commercial about wastage,or the laws that force commercial to dump fish would be more to the point,that we have this open slather competition. Whats the point. Snapper 1 is a fragile fishery. Any fishery that is down to 20% or less biomass is fragile. There are only so many fish. Havent looked at the finer points of the rules as i am not a competition type,more a solitary fisher,but thats beside the point. So have the organisers stipulated a minimum size of hook or hook type.Not everyone will be soft baiting or jigging. Have they supplied proper measuring rulers ,and have they included instructions on how to properly release these fish. Because at this time of year the gulf will have alot of undersize snapper swimming around among the bigger ones or whats left of them. So what is competitive about this. Person who stands the greatest chance is one who gets out at dawn and fishes till dark. The more they catch the greater their chances. And this shows a gaping flaw in our fish regulations . Keep 7 but catch as many as you want. Imagine if the comms had a Trawl and release competition. Who then among us could point the finger. Surely the word competition means skill. cant see skill in this,only chance. Catching a striped marlin on fly would involve skill. Winning gold at the olympics involves skill. But this dosent involve skill. should be renamed" Trash the fishery fest." |
Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 11:25am
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photograph keep tag release fish,but is there proof these tagged fish actually exist?? ------------- Sex at 58.Lucky I live at 56 |
Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 11:47am
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yeah it seems a stupid contest for sure. I was offered a ticket for free,i havnt been out on a boat fishing for years....but i turned it down cause im not contributing to killing unkept fish for the chance to win a prize that i bet nobody will win anyways. ------------- dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you. |
Posted By: catch1t
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2015 at 10:48pm
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So have the organisers stipulated a minimum size of hook or hook type. i would have 2 sizes of hook, one for the untagged and one for the million dollar fish... if I was to enter,,, which I wont be..
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Posted By: Big Manly Yaka
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2015 at 11:10am
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In theory this is not that much difference from other fishing competitions, we're still encouraged to continuously catch fish from start to finish to try and land the prize winning fish. The point of difference they try to make on this comp is you don't need to keep the fish to claim the prize. So if it was held over one or two days, like other comps, the impact would be about the same. The fact thats its over 9 days is the most concerning thing I think. |
Posted By: ThomasW
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2015 at 11:35am
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These a bit of evidence that tagged / released fish might become bait shy, I know when a trout is caught even many days later they are much more wary and less likely to fall for the same presentation. Hundreds of Kingfish have been tagged, and only a handful have been caught a second time. Often years later.. Although other fish do not seem to learn, Blue Cod seem to be happy to be caught multiple times. So that tagged Snapper might now be actively avoiding hooks.... Which would make the chance of catching it even more minuscule.
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