weather

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    Posted: 29 Nov 2021 at 1:35pm
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you check all weather forcasts and well witch one . o well im thinking wednesday if they are right , going of army bay ,have a go in tiri channel 5-10 knos,or back on the sand, we will see if i get out,small boat but a goody. check in later.Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Nov 2021 at 4:07pm
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I use swell map ... MAPS not the charts.
http://www.swellmap.com/forecast-maps
The maps have small localized tiles that also take into account tides and currents... updated every 3 to 4 hrs from memory.
 Good for 3 to 5 days out.. excellent indicator 7 days out.
Wed looks light breeze under 5 knots, swell/ chop, mirror flat.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote smudge Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Nov 2021 at 9:39pm
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I also use swellmap but it doesn't have many fans. I use it for the west coast off the Manukau bar and over the years I've learned what conditions at the shelf break makes for a safe 'ish' bar crossing. I don't know how it shapes up out east off Army Bay but if you have an app you p[refer, stick to it and learn the ins and outs.  Seven days out is way too far in my opinion for where I fish but Steps appears to have a different view on that.

Windy seems pretty popular now but for me you just cant beat a trip to the water for a look. The tech stuff is more important for making it back IMO.
Best gurnard fisherman in my street
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Snappa Geoff Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 7:08am
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Got to agree with ya Smudge! Steps using Swellmap  planing trips seven days out is nonsense. It changes daily even if its showing all green. Classic example here in Mokau yesterday, fine day no wind swellmap showing one meter on bar. A couple of local boats I know pulled the pin on going fishing as the bar was pumping one and a half to two metres. An out of town big AMF boat arrives decides they are going! Got out but as it jumped the last two big waves coming down a crew member broke his leg. A quick turn around back in, ambulance then rescue chopper arrives to cart him off to Waikato Hospital. Steps No doubt you will write pages on why you think your theory is right but on this occasion I wouldn't bother.Beer
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote tjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 8:03am
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I use swell map but only as a guide, the main issue for me is that my partner gets sea sick and she doesn't enjoy Raglan if the swell is more than 1m, Gulf tends to be choppy rather than swelly so not such an issue. I check the general forecast to make sure that there are no large fronts or lows coming, bar cams to check real time conditions and go from there. As Geoff mentioned swell map can be  optimistic and the swells on the bar are actually slightly larger. The best bet is to have  someone local to talk to on the day but that's not always possible. 
Cant beat hunting and Fishing in N.Z
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote tjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 8:44am
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Talking about the weather the fine spell has finally finished, calm but steady rain in the Waikato now. Raglan A cam shows bar as nearly flat for those that can get away from the office for a fish.
Cant beat hunting and Fishing in N.Z
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Phantom Menace Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 9:20am
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Forecasting is always a challenge.  I look at a few sites (e.g. MetVUW, SwellMap, Met Service etc.) and if making plans for the weekend I will look for general patterns and recognise that things can speed up or slow down too.  e.g. a front may be forecast to pass through on Friday with a high on Saturday but it may be slowed down and actually come through on Saturday ...

I am lucky now to live on Whangaparaoa Peninsula so can keep an eye on conditions looking north toward Motuora and Kawau Island so a quick look out the bedroom window helps too.  There have been times I've been doing chores, looked out the window and decided a quick trip out is a good thing.  (5 minutes drive to the boat club at Stanmore Bay to grab one of the club tractors to launch).

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 9:22am
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Steps using Swellmap  planing trips seven days out is nonsense.
I did not say planned 7 days out and never had... It is a good indicator.. and as in previous posts the pattern often changes between 8 and 24 hrs ...so that 'window' now maybe in the middle of the night or a Friday instead of a sat.
 So its  message to crew "...pencil in this couple days, confirm closer to date"

 3 days out if summer or winter (main seasons) gets to be rather accurate.  The change of season periods, when weather is changable, autumn and spring...things can change.


And yes used it for around 10yrs Waiheke  bottom end furth.. we have even used it to helicopters up onto the mountain thru breaks in cloud in PNG when no holes can be seen from the ground 36 hrs before hand.

 Now we are west coast.. like smudge...he goes manukau bar, we go Waikato bar (that also like Raglin has cctv)  from maps check wind strength direction and swells.

As Geoff mentioned swell map can be  optimistic and the swells on the bar are actually slightly larger

When watch the raglin bar cctv, the  SWs wells tend to be a bit sheltered around the bar.. as indicated by swell map, get out the back and swell get bigger.. as indicated by the map...
Waikato and manukau are not sheltered so what comes straight in from the ocean is what it is.

 Same goes  say head up waiheke channel, mirror flat , stick your nose out from ponui and can be rather snotty if tide and wind are opposite... or chop up out there quick when tide changes...

Its not just about read weather forecast, lets go..
Conditions are about several things.. its about watching swells ,
watching wind direction,
watching highs lows
distance between iso bars on maps,
watch change tide,
 know current direction
under standing lea of land.

 Put that together with good data and then things become reliable.

 If one just looks up a forecast, doesnt matter which one  and dont combine all the factors, then any forecast when out on the water can turn out rather wrong..often.

 So here is how it works  in real time..

So last Sat  7 days out see a POSSIBLE window starting to  form for the bars on frid  for the weekend.
 So thats a pencil in for sat/ sun , possible Monday.
Much the same yesterday 6 days out.
 Today change shows the window actually opens late thurs, window opens for frid thru weekend and closing monday arvo...
From yrs of observation, also having run a local weather station for a few yrs... This time around I can confidently say , bars are open for the weekend...5/6 days out.. and I could not do that a few weeks back because change of season.

So lets see what happens in 5 or 6 days time.. again.

Now I hope this helps some, as my previous posts on there matter have.. and silently use swellmap as forecaste are intended to be used...

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 9:56am
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if making plans for the weekend I will look for general patterns and recognise that things can speed up or slow down too.  e.g. a front may be forecast to pass through on Friday with a high on Saturday but it may be slowed down and actually come through on Saturday ...

 There you go guys , someone who actually also looks at iso bars fronts and other stuff  then puts together for lcal conditions.

And

I am lucky now to live on Whangaparaoa Peninsula so can keep an eye on conditions looking north toward Motuora and Kawau Island so a quick look out the bedroom window helps too.  There have been times I've been doing chores, looked out the window and decided a quick trip out is a good thing.

Where as the rest of us usually cant look out the window across the sea ...I check weather and bar cctv  everyday, often couple times if a wind looks possible instead.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Snappa Geoff Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 12:56pm
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Got a BiteLOLAnd a good page on the subject! Steps 99% of the time your knowledge and stuff you know on any topics you post on here in my opinion we all learn something from it! The other 1% like today thought Id'e keep ya honest!! On the guy injured yesterday heard thismorn his foot ended up facing wrong way, not good. I use to go over Mokau bar with a mate in a six meter alloy. Once we took huge air off a big wave. I was wearing me old white Freezing work gummies and the impact when landing nearly broke an ankle. Took few months to come right. That day also we shouldn't of attempted a crossing. Beer   
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote lingee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 1:14pm
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phant whats it like tomorrow ,what to go off army bay,cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Phantom Menace Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 1:51pm
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Lingee, here is the view out the bedroom window right now (1:45pm Tuesday - looking over Stanmore Bay north to Mahurangi etc.)  It is looking good and tomorrow will be better.


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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote lingee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 2:39pm
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cheers mate
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 5:33pm
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Wed..?  I posted right up at the top on mon

Wed looks light breeze under 5 knots, swell/ chop, mirror flat.

 Stil the same for tomorrow. Chop and breeze picks up a little early hrs Thursday.
 Late Frid arvo then turns to crap and your water tanks get a top up right thru to to Monday morning.

Yet same period looks like west coast bars will be a go and our tanks dont get topped up
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2021 at 5:43pm
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Got a BiteLOLAnd a good page on the subject! Steps 99% of the time your knowledge and stuff you know on any topics you post on here in my opinion we all learn something from it!

 Yep hook line and sinker m8
Some things I learnt at a very young age..
1/ always listen.. even to crap.. in there will be something to learn.
2/ one never stops learning.
3/ If someone says doesnt work, and think faintest possibility it MAY.. try it... usually turns out they say it because their grandfathers, uncles, cousins, brothers wife told them 30yrs ago.



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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote MB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2021 at 6:33pm
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I've totally given up with the SwellMap charts now. Have used Windy for a while now and it's pretty accurate, but liked the SwellMap charts for an overview of the next few days as easy to read. Just not accurate enough even for that.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2021 at 6:50pm
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Totally agree, I gave up on the charts...cant rem... doesnt matter
They cover a general area that I recon is far bigger than the individual map tiles, They updated not long back down to something like 1km sq (???)
What I recon they should and would be real cool.. for me Wink
If could put up say 4 maps, so can choose say.. wind, rain,swell, water temp at the same time then flick thru or choose the times altogether

There is a cool weather app .. I have messed with it and its really good...And guy who makes it is a kiwi in NZ.
Flowx
I have not looked at it in while, and I should do so, its been overdue. The dreaded.. "to do" list

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Dec 2021 at 10:25am
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So get out yesterday?

Wed..?  I posted right up at the top on mon
Wed looks light breeze under 5 knots, swell/ chop, mirror flat.

 Still the same for tomorrow. Chop and breeze picks up a little early hrs Thursday.


Looks like Chop and breeze picks up a little early hrs Thursday. is a few hrs out .. picking up early morning instead.
Not bad being 4 days out..couple hrs out.

Again looking at the bar window last weekend, Frid starts to look good... well a little better than predicted back then.. thu still not suitable for us and our size boat.. guys been heading out anyway.

 And Sat.. yep window still there, NNE wind picks up a little then drops.. Still all good
The rain comes in from the nth, out at the 400/500m mark  off shore a little earlier than predicted week ago, so maybe a shower around the time we head back to the bar from the 50/60m
Not a worry but watching anyway.

All on Met Ocean (swellmap) map tiles not charts.

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Pcj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2022 at 3:19pm
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Friday is looking confusing
Metservice   Friday: Easterly 15 knots, rising to 20 knots for a time in the morning. Becoming northerly 10 knots in the afternoon and easing to variable 5 knots in the evening. 

Swellmap  nw 5 knts

Predict wind   se 8 knts

windyty 7 knt e

This is for The firth of Thames area,Thinking go to ramp around 6.00am and decide then

C/G now casting is a copy of metservice but their wind reports from various spots indicate lower range.The one my PH is set too is Passage rock.Constanly 7 knt e
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2022 at 8:51pm
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Your boat .. I would not be going up the outside of the islands..and if do .. I dont know change of tide, but when it does it is liable to go from ok to bit snotty pretty quick.

 I would hit into the middle of the  'flats.. big drift with strayines on light gear, and burley hanging on thin rope  off the stern just off , even bounce a little across the sea bed.
 Waiheke channel will be calm , but general crap fishing , thu drift the the shallow bays or around the inside of pakatoa  in 2 to 5m water.
 Dont go dropping sinkers in the boat.. be like a kayak..
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