Marine forecast
Printed From: The Fishing Website
Category: Saltwater Fishing
Forum Name: The Briny Bar
Forum Description: The place for general chat on saltwater fishing!
URL: https://www.fishing.net.nz/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=140149
Printed Date: 25 Sep 2026 at 6:16am
Topic: Marine forecast
Posted By: Tonto2
Subject: Marine forecast
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 9:23am
I just took the below screenshots. What the... ------------- slowly going where everyone else has already been |
Replies:
Posted By: Tonto2
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 9:24am
 ------------- slowly going where everyone else has already been |
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 11:27am
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Yepp, it was pretty horrible here this morning, much was than what was predicted. did you get you boat sorted Martyn? ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
Posted By: MJ
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 3:41pm
| I find Predictwind gets it right. Havent had a bad forecast from them yet. |
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 4:58pm
For me it's time for a change ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
MJ wrote:Posted By: Telecaster
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2026 at 9:03pm
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I always use Windy and Swellmap and just take the worst forecast as gospel. Was definitely snotty today around 11am until 3pm then it calmed down. We had about 25 knots of NW at the peak. In gulf harbour up on the hills.
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Posted By: Schecter
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 7:00am
| I primarily use the Coast Guard weather app. Although I double-check with Metservice and Predictwind to be certain. |
Posted By: Tonto2
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 7:09am
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Yep, we still went out , tucked up at Matakawau and caught a few gurnard then out to ropers and caught some really fat snapper. It was a really nice day out there and no other boats. ------------- slowly going where everyone else has already been |
Posted By: BotStomper
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 11:22am
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Metservice is beyond hopeless. Couldn't forecast the sea being wet and snow being cold. Honestly I don't know how they stay in operation, presumably some sort of state funding. We had a general rule for ski trips that if Metservice said it was going to be crap, you should go skiing. Because on the fairly regular case that they were wrong, the mountain would be empty thanks to all the people who only look at Metservice. They seemingly always forecast the worst case scenario. I guess the old idiom applies that I would rather be on land wishing I was fishing than on the water wishing I was on land, but if you rely solely on Metservice you will miss a lot of perfectly fishable days. Swellmap is unreliable IMO. Probably the most prone to saying it will be good and you get out there to find it isn't. Predictwind is the best by a mile in my estimation, having tried a lot of them. The fact they have a "Validation" function in the app so you can compare how accurate their forecasts were, kinda speaks to them being confident. The ECMWF model has historically been very very good, however they recently added ICON which looks promising. GFS and the other models, unreliable. Windy has both ECMWF and ICON available now. Honestly it's 99% of Predictwind. If you're an angler and you're not using one of Windy or PW you're missing out.
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Posted By: MJ
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 1:17pm
| One of the things that I find really good with Predictwind is that it gives you a picture over time across a whole region, so you can see how the wind develops over several days rather than just relying on a "snapshot" forecast. That really helps to build a useful picture. Unless you used the paid functions, it only gives you wind though - not rain or other stuff.I also like to see the differences it gives between the various prediction models. Its a great tool. |
Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 4:30pm
  
------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 4:31pm
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top is windy for Friday Middle is Predict using pwg Bottom is predict ukmo What is UKMO on predict? ------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: The Tamure Kid
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 10:56pm
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Guys, I don't want to sound dumb, but here goes! With the likes of Predict Wind and Windy: are they most accurate for particular areas where they have some kind of data base of actual weather conditions that are feeding into the forecast, or are they simply based on modelling and anywhere you select is as accurate as any other? For example, if you put an X on a point along the coast half way between Whangarei and Bay of Islands, is it likely to be as accurate as the forecast for the Waitemata? Interestingly, I know someone who lives up in Northland and they rate Windguru (another Europe-based modelling site) as the most accurate for their coastal town. And that goes out two weeks. whereas Windy etc only have a forecast for about 5 days in advance. Maybe it's only relatively accurate to pick 5-7 days out. A King Country farmer/YouTube kayak fishing creator said recently he looks to Metvuw for the most accurate long-range forecasts for his farm, and fishing.
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Posted By: The Tamure Kid
Date Posted: 22 Jun 2026 at 10:59pm
United Kingdom-based modelling? Windguru is another which offers 2-3 models for you to compare.
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Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 5:51am
------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: slayliner
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 9:19am
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Hi I've been using windfinder lately and it seems not to bad so far. https://www.windfinder.com/#9/-36.2289/174.8900/spot" rel="nofollow - https://www.windfinder.com/#9/-36.2289/174.8900/spot
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Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 9:50am
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UKMO is the UK Metrological Office, full list of the different models available on PredictWind in link below. I usually use their own PWE and PWG models. https://www.predictwind.com/features/models" rel="nofollow - Weather Models · PredictWind
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Posted By: Phantom Menace
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 11:49am
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Most of the weather forecast apps use a range of models and you can switch between models and/or compare. I reckon different models work best for different locations so look at the forecast and after a while you'll figure out which one works best for where you go fishing. I've found the ECMWF works OK for me but to be honest I haven't done a comparison for a while so should do that again! Forecast period / duration and grid granularity: Some of the apps will provide longer time range and higher granularity (both smaller geographic grid size and shorter time between forecasts) for those that pay their fees (fair enough too).
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Posted By: MJ
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 6:03pm
| Tamure Kid - I am far from knowledgeable on how the different prediction engines work, but my understanding is that they are all use computer-generated projections. They must be using data from as many sampling points as they can access from across the world. The days of a "local" forecast for these models are long gone. Having said that, the forecast they give for any area is almost certainly supported by local data.The best true local model I think is still to be obtained by sticking one's head outside. |
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 23 Jun 2026 at 7:06pm
I agree to a point - as in that should be the final check but it doesn't work well from a planning perspective ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
Posted By: kimber7wsm
Date Posted: 24 Jun 2026 at 7:22am
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I use ECMWF setting in PredictWind, because that's what it was set to when I installed it. I've always thought it pretty good. If you can look on a computer it has 2 windows so you can compare. I have selected the Predict AI model as the second just to see how it goes. It should average all of them and learn as it goes. As long as they feed live data in to that, it should learn and get very good. It will be interesting to watch.
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Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 24 Jun 2026 at 3:24pm
 ------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 24 Jun 2026 at 3:24pm
------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: BotStomper
Date Posted: 24 Jun 2026 at 3:56pm
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PWG is PredictWind's own interpretation of the GFS model. For my locale, PWG and PWE (PredictWind's interpretation of ECMWF) are consistently the two worst-ranked forecasts under the Validation. Frankly I completely ignore them. The trouble with having lots of models is you can usually find at least one that agrees with your thinking (or plans for that day), and if you click around the screen a bit you'll find a little area with 5 knots less than the rest and convince yourself it'll be a good day. Confirmation bias and all that.
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Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 25 Jun 2026 at 6:17pm
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It's all just a prediction it's not a hard science but as a follower of Swellmap for many years I learned to trust it as a guide. A few years ago the 'algorythm' changed and the ratings are now so bad I honestly think it should be shut down. I've always looked at the figures. My last crossing of the Manukau bar looked like a perfect day. While the bar was ok the conditions out there were some of the worst I have been in. Right on the very limit of my tolerance. I've had worries before but those are usually centred on the bar rather than the conditions.
I've lost all confidence in Swellmap ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
Posted By: kimber7wsm
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 6:10am
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PJC, I've never looked at PWG, so have no historical knowledge of what it is like. I have found ECMWF good as said. I think it's let me down, maybe once. That's for the Firth, Top of Coro, Bay of Plenty, Whanga right around to Lottin. I watch over several days, if the forecast for that day remains stable, then I find it pretty good. If it varies every day over the 10 day period, I give it a miss. But with a forecast that varies every day, it's generally rotten anyway. I think the consistency of several days is the key. At least that's my theory anyway. Gives me something to do over the morning coffee.
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Posted By: Phantom Menace
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 12:10pm
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Yeah, I'm like you kimber7wsm. If i'm planning a "big weekend" on the sea (particularly if it involves taking other people out on the boat) I'm checking the different forecast models well in advance. I like the metvuw isobaric forecasts for long range as I find it easier to see the weather systems moving over and also spot changes as they re-forecast. (but that's because I'm a bit old school I guess). Then I start to pay more attention to the likes of ECMWF etc. via Windy As we get closer I'll also look at the 5 day spot forecast in the Coastguard app Then on the day before and day of I'll be looking out the window and also checking the Coastguard NowCasting locations through the app.
I used to check SwellMap a lot but don't include it in the "weather things I check" now as it turned to crap. |
Posted By: Pcj
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 3:07pm
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coastguard app showing 30knts at Te kouma Yet predict shows on 2 models 17 @ 19 windy 15 windfinder 33 wave/sea state not really interested in as crossing the firth on a incoming tide,anything from sw/se you know its going to lumpy same nw/ne outgoing lumpy
------------- "Times up" |
Posted By: MB
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 5:21pm
| SwellMap is just downright dangerous in my opinion. I use PredictWind with the ECMWF algorithm. Occasionally, the wind kicks in a little earlier or later than predicted, but it's generally very good. I also use the wave maps. 1.5+ metre swell doesn't make for a very nice day out, even if there is no wind. |
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 6:00pm
I have to agree that Swellmapis crap. I've trusted them for many years and for me they have been very reliable. Not in the last three years though. I'm either missing opportunities or getting smashed. I'll give predict wind a go. ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2026 at 6:01pm
Last time I went out on a great swellmap day it was dangerously uncomfortable ------------- Best gurnard fisherman in my street |
Posted By: Kandrew
Date Posted: 28 Jun 2026 at 7:35pm
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Today showed my problem with PredictWind looked at forecast all week for Sunday at Manly, showed 8 knots with gusts of 13 knots, remembering 11 knots bring whitecaps. Looked out at manly and across to Motuora, no white caps and by lunchtime the sea was glassy flat with a light westerly. Could have easily gone fishing, but had to do some work on the boat. 
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Posted By: Kandrew
Date Posted: 11 Jul 2026 at 3:57pm
And today PredictWind let me down again, their forecast for this morning was was 5 knots from the south, blowing more like 10 from the south west but l thought I’d head out and see if it settles down, but as per most of their forecasts which are rubbish the southwest came in and was a good 18 to 20 knots blowing in my ear, so I called it a day and see what tomorrow looks like, but honestly I only use their free forecasts because who would pay good money for this rubbish. I find all of these computer prediction sites are rubbish and are only good for a 50/50 idea a few days out, honestly don’t waste your money. Do a coast guard weather course and learn how to read a weather map then you will be able to make your own forecasts for free and have a far better idea of what the weather will be.  
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