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Covid 19 - fishing & anything related

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Category: Saltwater Fishing
Forum Name: The Captain Morgan Briny Bar
Forum Description: The place for general chat on saltwater fishing!
URL: https://www.fishing.net.nz/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=132995
Printed Date: 31 Mar 2020 at 2:24am


Topic: Covid 19 - fishing & anything related
Posted By: FishMan
Subject: Covid 19 - fishing & anything related
Date Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:07pm
Okay, perhaps it's not a fishing related topic, but the way I see it lots and lots of people are going to get lots of fishing time very soon.

This lurgy looks like it will shut down international travel, tourism and any gathering involving more than three people.

The world as we know it is about to take a big hit. I reckon schools will be closed before the end of March.

So what do you reckon... what's next?




Replies:
Posted By: smudge
Date Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:23pm
If there's no easing off then yeah, schools will be next. Crime will spike. i saw the first ever person I've seen in Waiuku wearing a face mask today. Concerts and other big events will suffer if the infection rate continues to rise. The UFC fight at Spark Arena had about a million people attend but as soon as we get our first domestic case things will change

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Best gurnard fisherman in my street


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:36pm
you probably should just relax.  97% of the cases and 99% of the deaths are in mainland China.  We’ve had SARS, MERS and a couple of years ago everyone was worried about Zika. These things come and go.

To give some context the CDC in the US estimates that 29 million Americans have gotten the flu so far this winter with 280,000 hospitalised and 16,000 deaths.  And that’s just in the US.




Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 8:44am
High infection rate, low death rate.. from my understanding lower than the normal flu.
And then from what I understand is those who are hit hard have other issues ranging from over weight and other dietary and fitness issues.
 On that basis add into that NZ has one of the highest rates of dietary, over weight and fitness  related deases in the world.
Should be worried? maybe so.

As to economic effects..
 Tourism .. A 1400 km road trip...we took our time and only 2 cars passed us and where followed by other cars not much more than that.. no slow tourist vans... camp/cabin sites MT.

Wondering how our charter guys are doing.. most likely ok this week due to Nationals.

Banks and economists have been putting out a few negative comments in last few weeks.. and all along the same lines. Even if Corona does hit us personally.

Throw the longer term effects of Trump and his trade wars.. which includes NZ.. that are just starting to kick in, and Corona more immediate and medium term effects..
An infrastructure that is struggling to keep up with population growth.. including energy..

A 'she will be right' attitude going into possibly another situation as in the late 60s and 70s with a majority of population that has never experienced such things..
 bit of a worry..
And hope to be wrong.





Posted By: pompey
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 11:52am
This is building into a real big issue. I don't believe the infection and death rate reports out of China. They will be way worse. Some populations will be hit very hard. 
I think we will have the virus here soon if its not already here. We have done virtually nothing, as usual relying on being PC and not offending anyone and not wanting to impact our income by taking a tougher stand.
At the moment we have a health system unable to cope with many routine illnesses. Hospitals are poorly maintained, bulging at the seams and we have staffing issues. Will we cope with a coronavirus outbreak with our current health system?
We won't.
The economic cost will be huge. Many will loose jobs, businesses will go under, stock markets will tumble and so will pension funds. A re-calibration of asset values is right upon us.
On top of all this I have zero faith in any Govt departments and politicians to provide the necessary leadership.


Posted By: puff
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 11:57am
In a couple of years it will be another type of virus...
Bird..... swine...... corona..... next


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 12:12pm
A country doesn't quarentine 750million for just a flu.. the numbers out of China is crap. China is basically commiting economic suicide "for a flu". 4 Chinese virus researchers were caught stealing samples.out.of Canada a while back,and their level 4 bio warfare lab is less than 300mtrs from the wet market it is said to come from. Coincidence?
No vaccine,no immunity,up to 25 day incubation period...... quarentine is a waste of time,this will be worldwide already. Like Spanish flu,it will hit in waves,that's what makes it so dangerous,the first wave will knock the immune system into overdrive,then the second infection will kill the weak. I don't believe what any govt is saying about this virus.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 1:29pm
Close the border.Go back to manufacturing googds and food in NZ no importation.

The logging industry is crying bad luck,why export whole logs when we can dress and mill then supply the timber,Oh silly me China does not want to the price they want to use their cheap/free labour.

As for the cray fisherman feed the domestic market first at a reasonable rate,whats left then export.


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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: Mr Moritz
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 3:03pm
I wonder how the Olympic Games will get on. Only four months to go, I don't think Coronavirus will be gone by then. Suspect they will postpone them...


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 3:10pm
This virus will be with us forever,we know stuff all about it,and the countries that do know are not sharing info transparently. No vaccine for at least 18mnths. I don't think our health system is ready for the ****storm that is coming. China has alot to answer for in their shady tactics in hiding this before it got to this stage. It will take years for things to get back to normal.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: cirrus
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:10pm
Rest assured we are not given the true picture. This is potentially more serious than we are told. Alot of commentators are saying this was an accidental  release of a bio weapon. Who knows.The lab for dangerous and contageous disease was just down the road from the markets.

No one shuts down a whole country if not serious.
Marc Lipstich,a Harvard professor has predicted that between 40 & 70 % of the worlds population will be effected by this virus.
Already we are seeing broken supply chains. Both Hyundai and Nissan have closed plants due to components  not being available.
Over 1 trillion was shaved off the dow last night.
A very substantial part of the worlds  medicines come from china.
We are very reliant on them.
This will be a wakeup call for the globalists.
Italy is being isolated from the rest of europe. Sth Korea has just put a city of over 2 million into lockdown. Iran badly effected.This is serious stuff.
And ,yes our economy will be badly effected,regardless if the virus gets here or not
Find our media does not give much coverage.
Zerohedge.com has been giving very comprehensive coverage . Best i have seen with multiple new articles daily.



Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:33pm
It is no Spanish flu.

One thing is for sure China needs to sort out it's relationship with animals. Namely the filthy wild market places that breed these things.

Maybe they could learn that rhino horn has no magic properties, bats, monkey brains and all that other weird stuff too.


Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:41pm
Suggest read up on the flu pandemic with the return of solders from France at the end of WW1...and the death rate , economic consequense etc
 Not just the effects in NZ but around the world.
 Those days no drugs to treat symptoms etc.

Funny how things dont change, we just forget ..

And ,yes our economy will be badly effected,regardless if the virus gets here or not

yep saying in to 70s "America sneezes NZ goes into recession"  The Briton joining the ECC didnt help either.
 Then there was 1929 .. wasnt wall street that caused the rest of the world to go into depression , was the US government going into isolation policies. Polices not to different from Trumps antics... on top of corona


On top of all this I have zero faith in any Govt departments and politicians to provide the necessary leadership.

Agree.. we have now have a house full of professional politicians.. ppl with degrees in communication who are educated and trained spill BS in a very believable manner to get re elected.


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:51pm
I feel the US CDC and the WHO are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at the moment. I've seen video of portable crematoriums made from shipping containers and other odd things. Have a look on windy and go to SO2 emissions coming out of China at the moment. Sulpher dioxide is produced by burning organic matter,could be pets they are known to be killing,I don't know . Apparently there's a theory that someone took a test animal home to eat cause of swine and bird flu knocking down the amount of protein available in China at the moment,and the rest is Chinese whispers.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: puff
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 10:14pm


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 10:53pm
Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

I feel the US CDC and the WHO are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at the moment. I've seen video of portable crematoriums made from shipping containers and other odd things. Have a look on windy and go to SO2 emissions coming out of China at the moment. Sulpher dioxide is produced by burning organic matter,could be pets they are known to be killing,I don't know . Apparently there's a theory that someone took a test animal home to eat cause of swine and bird flu knocking down the amount of protein available in China at the moment,and the rest is Chinese whispers.

You need to get a grip man. Why is it every news story is an excuse for some people to completely wig out. 


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:25am
Some ill informed opinions so far. Even with incomplete knowledge to date there is plenty of reasonable analysis available. The death rate seems about 2.3% much higher in the 20% with severe infections. This far higher than the flu .05%.
To compare existing deaths from the flu with this misses the point, as is saying it is largely confined to China.
It seems like the cases double in just under a week and China had a head start by almost two months.
The progression is  2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 ....... and on to a very large number in months.
The Korean rate suggests they have gone from 1-2 to a thousand in a few weeks
That is the problem and that it is infectious without symptoms eg the Italian dr self managing a supposed cold leading to the lockdown of a resort of a thousand potential contacts.
Those interested in being better informed might start with https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130" rel="nofollow - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130


Posted By: FishMan
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 6:00am
Good post Chris.

The only thing about this virus that isn't bad is that young healthy people have not been adversely affected by it.

At the present time it must be in New Zealand and most other places in the world. Very soon it is going to explode everywhere. There is virtually nothing we can do about it except stay at home and pull the curtains.

The travel bans probably won't last, simply because every country will have it.

There is however a great dilemma brewing for tiny nations that rely on tourism. Kiribati has denied entry to anyone from any country that has coronavirus cases. That included all the fly fishers from the United States that are the mainstay of their economy. Very soon they will have to make the call on whether to close their borders entirely. The measles disaster that hit Samoa will be very fresh in their minds. Once they lose the air link through there being closed borders who is to say that the air link will ever return.

Interesting times...




Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 6:25am
My Two cents worth.......I will go down a different route IE.....who is most susceptible....
From what i have been reading...men are most susceptible...with men over 50 the highest......Pre existing conditions  and smokers are most at risk because its main nasty component is the sars it contains.
Its also not a one size fits all either....with many people being infected and having no symptoms at all.....it all depends on how it wants to attack you but if it decides on ****ing your lungs....you could well suffocate in your own mucous !
some people have mild symptoms and in fact the number of people who it destroys in relation is quite low....They are making the fastest progress ever made on finding a vaccine ....if they had continued with their research after the sars bug....they would probably be very much closer to finding a vaccine right now but because sars abated.....they left the research behind and didnt continue on with it.....its not as simple as here a vaccine,lets get on to it....it has to be field tested and made sure it is safe for everyone......I am in Perth and there hasnt been one case here yet.....Probably because we are the most isolated city in the world and its so ****ing hot right now ...that no **** wants to come here !!......thats a bonus but its completely screwed the tourism business here(which i am part of)....it will turn up here ...sooner or later.Confused


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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 8:04am
Originally posted by chris_gee chris_gee wrote:

Some ill informed opinions so far. Even with incomplete knowledge to date there is plenty of reasonable analysis available. The death rate seems about 2.3% much higher in the 20% with severe infections. This far higher than the flu .05%.
To compare existing deaths from the flu with this misses the point, as is saying it is largely confined to China.
It seems like the cases double in just under a week and China had a head start by almost two months.
The progression is  2 4 tel:8%2016%2032%2064%20128%20256" rel="nofollow - 8 16 32 64 128 256 tel:512%201024%202048%204096" rel="nofollow - 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 ....... and on to a very large number in months.
The Korean rate suggests they have gone from 1-2 to a thousand in a few weeks
That is the problem and that it is infectious without symptoms eg the Italian dr self managing a supposed cold leading to the lockdown of a resort of a thousand potential contacts.
Those interested in being better informed might start with https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130" rel="nofollow - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Contrary to what you say (there are 800 cases in KR not 1-2k) and the data suggest that we are getting on top of it as the number of new infections has been on the decline since early Feb. the spike in the chart is a one time adjustment when there weren’t enough test kits available so new cases were counted based on a clinical diagnosis only (so not very accurate).
 




Posted By: Structfab
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 9:14am
personally I think it's hyped up by the media **** storm. The numbers aren't that alarming really, and if you don't believe the numbers then you might as well worry worry worry.....because the stress of worrying about things outside your control will shorten your life regardless of the reality on the other side of the world. The vast majority of the initial alarmist claims haven't eventuatd


Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 9:33am
Yep I agree.

 The worry is not the virus, if one is heathy , eats well etc... it is the numbers off sick from factories.. the effect on production (and consumption)
Also the effect of actually closing factories, shop schools, drop in imports/ exports, ban on travel resulting in tourist industries closing up.. the unemployment, cost on social services etc.

 All the secondary and tertiary, down the road stuff that effects household incomes , economy  etc.

Then there is the redirecting a lower tax income for the government from hospitals, education into other social services.
 It is a very long chain of events.


Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 9:51am
Thousand cases in South Korea and italy.leave the boarders open think not.

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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 10:39am
One positive is the huge drop in C02 if you are into that.


Posted By: Catchelot
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 10:42am
Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

One positive is the huge drop in C02 if you are into that.

Complete Bollicks!


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"The sea, once it casts its spell, holds one in its net of wonder forever." - Jacques Cousteau


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 12:23pm
When it takes hold in India,Russia and Africa is when the shet will hit the fan.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:20pm
Australia is about to pull the trigger on their pandemic plan. I find that odd as they have so few cases.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/virus-emergency-blueprint-australia-pulls-trigger-on-pandemic-plan-20200225-p54490.html" rel="nofollow - https://www.smh.com.au/national/virus-emergency-blueprint-australia-pulls-trigger-on-pandemic-plan-20200225-p54490.html

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:36pm
Hell of a lot of good thoughts on the issue...Thumbs Up
 And many have been some food for thought...
 Now Im thinking how bad is this what will happen here..
So Im Assuming our PM as gone to our universities, scientists and asked them...we I hope she has..
And my uneducate answer to her would be along these lines.

We have one of the highest diebties, over weight, asthmatic high blood pressure, high cholesterol rates in the world, and a high age demographic. Most of these in the  low income and urban environments.
All high risk critical and fatal groups for corona.
 We will not have the facilities to treat and care for in mass at this point in time.
That is not a good scenrio...

If that is correct we would then see higher over all rate of fatalities than most other countries.

My next question is why we would see these higher rates..
Basically because of our fitness and diets in this country.
 And why is that? Because we see fit to have self responsibility to inject ourselfs with sugars and bad diets.

 Now if our professional politians in previous yrs had seen .. and Im sure they are very well aware of the long term consquinces, restrictions of certain foods, taxs and a lot of other 'tools' would have been introduced for the over all betterment of our economy, heath services, and general well being..

IF this is the case our politicians have let our country down, and if this virus goes thru this country as I may suggest it could, in excess of the 2.3% fatal rate.
That is where the responsibility lays.
 One could argue "well we voted them in"
We have not had a choice of a politician who genuinely has the balls to do what is needed for a couple decades now and if we have the the bureaucracy stimes them.

Now another thought..
 And this one is purety objective totally un PC and without any consideration
 If I was asked (heaven forbid) to design a virus to best suit a take over of a country or simply to 'cleanse' out a counties population.. damn this is going to sound very much like a Hitler or Stalin thing.
 I would need a virus that spreads very easy with at least a 2 week incubation before any symptoms.
Will infect most of the population to varying degrees from nil symptoms to fatalities of those who are potentially  and are a burden on the social systems including heath.
 I would target modern illnesses mainly based around obesity  and poor diet. Diebities, heart , blood pressure, cholesterol, immune systems and fitness, and maybe the old and frail..
 Damn thats a very scarry thought and scares me now I think about it.

Surely our scientists have been asked, and give at least their preliminary comments by now, with updates as stats come available.. just as they did with the measles thing.
 We saw the measles projections published, and they where very accurate, even prediction the day a week or so ahead when the rate of infections woulds start to decrease.

Why have we not seen the Corona papers yet?



Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:39pm
They are being realistic about what may happen, better to be prepared for something that doesn't happen than to be completely unprepared when it hits.  I suspect we will be woefully unprepared and our main plan is to hope it doesn't hit us.



Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:43pm
I hope I'm wrong,but I think this is going to get really ugly soon. Alot of things don't add up for so few deaths,that's the big red flag for me. Hundreds of millions of people locked down, countries closing borders,other countries not supposedly having any cases. There's no way our health system can handle what may be coming.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:45pm
Australia is going to let the Chinese students in provided they have stayed in another country for 14 days.

Wonder if Jacinda will follow?


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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 1:55pm
Actually I didn't say 1k-2k cases in Korea. I said from 1-2 to a thousand in a few w. The latest figure is 977 but that is a few hours out of date and they are getting about 100 cases a day at the moment.
The cases are not necessarily falling as your graph is china and the reporting has changed 3 times. Originally it was only those cases proven by testing, but testing was not generally available. It still isn't in the USA. The reagents have proved unreliable and it is only carried out by the CDC. A swab from the upper respiratory tract can be negative but easier to get. The US also has pretty restrictive criteria for testing namely travel to china or close contact with a proven case. Ha good luck establishing the latter.


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:03pm
Another 169 cases in South Korea. Bno news is always up to date with numbers.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Titahi
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:10pm
I have worked  as a public health nurse and done communicable disease contact tracing. Some of the information provided in this thread is spurious..... which in the current climate of mis information and distorted facts is dangerous..
If you want to know whats going on, you should seek the appropriate source for your information, repeating what you saw/ heard from Social media,  some mate at the pub and  my wife's friends second cousins dog groomer is stupid.


http://https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus" rel="nofollow - http://https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus



EDIT; We should send any anti vaxxers to Wuhan, now is  their chance to prove science  wrong.....



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"I love standing by the ocean and just knowing what its for"


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:22pm
Dead link.
Titahi, NZ is getting it's info from who? Most likely the USA? It's a new virus,we know little about it and the big mistake is we are comparing it to SARS in likes of transmissibility,death rate and such. If China was a little more forthcoming on what is going on over there we would all be better off for it. Now that Italy and SK are getting hammered we may get a bit of transparency on the real numbers. China is just pulling numbers out if a hat I think.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:44pm
From 9 new cases yesterday to 5 new cases in China today....that's what I mean by fiddling the numbers and lack of honestly from them. Unbelievable.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 3:11pm
Yes 169 new cases in SK total over 1100 as at now whoops last report.


Posted By: Titahi
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 3:21pm
Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

Dead link.
Titahi, NZ is getting it's info from who? Most likely the USA? .

And there in lies the problem, an assumption.

the ministry of health will be getting their information from WHO and multiple partner agencies, 


Sorry for the dead link  I cant seem to get them to load properly? .....

Ministry of health and world health organisation are both valuable sites for correct factual information based on current knowledge, the WHO site also has situation reports , 


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"I love standing by the ocean and just knowing what its for"


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 3:39pm
The same WHO that is stalling on calling this a worldwide pandemic? The same WHO that is a charity based organization that has China as it's second largest contributor? I would rather not put all my eggs in one basket regarding how they are fluffing about with this situation.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Titahi
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 4:30pm
Take a deep breath, FF.  Stop yelling in the echo chamber.....

The WHO isn't a charity based organisation, its funded by member states who pay assessed contributions, A charity organisation by definition is very different.

The definition of a pandemic is quite specific, and clearly we haven't reached that threshold yet, otherwise it would be announced as such.

im out...


Is it raining and windy in Russell Craig ? :) 




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"I love standing by the ocean and just knowing what its for"


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 4:46pm
Originally posted by chris_gee chris_gee wrote:

Actually I didn't say 1k-2k cases in Korea. I said from 1-2 to a thousand in a few w. The latest figure is 977 but that is a few hours out of date and they are getting about 100 cases a day at the moment.
The cases are not necessarily falling as your graph is china and the reporting has changed 3 times. Originally it was only those cases proven by testing, but testing was not generally available. It still isn't in the USA. The reagents have proved unreliable and it is only carried out by the CDC. A swab from the upper respiratory tract can be negative but easier to get. The US also has pretty restrictive criteria for testing namely travel to china or close contact with a proven case. Ha good luck establishing the latter.

No my chart was global numbers

Best info which I have been tracking since early Jan

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" rel="nofollow - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" rel="nofollow - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6




Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 4:55pm
All you guys are not seeing the massive elephant in the room. 10% of the world's.population locked down for a "flu". A month from now it could very well be 20%. What the world is doing now should be raising eyebrows everywhere.... cognitive dissonance is massive regarding the importance of what is going on and how countries are reacting to this.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 5:21pm
Well the die is cast.
No putting the milk back in the cow.

Add as many other cliches as you want because it will get here. Probably by winter too.



Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 5:29pm
I agree muppet. If it takes the CDC three days to run a test,how is little.ole NZ going to cope. It has all the early symptoms of a standard flu,so quite a few results will be put down to flu. China is building more "hospitals" for this flu,yet release single digits figures of newly infected.....doesn't add up at all.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Alan L
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by pompey pompey wrote:

This is building into a real big issue. I don't believe the infection and death rate reports out of China. They will be way worse. 
I have a mate I fish with (today). He has business contacts he works with in HK and China. They bth say the death toll is hugely under reported in China. Multiples worse. I won't quote the numbers he quoted me. But would not surprise me- they control everything. The Dr who originally blew the whistle on it was forced to sign a confession that he got it wrong. Then died later from the same virus.
Why would you believe their figures?
Alan


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Legasea Legend member


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 9:39pm
3 hrs later and I still don't know what to say that Alan. China uses a Facebook like chat site called WeChat,and another called weibo,some.of the videos I've seen are.shocking,people.herded off to quarentine forcibly, people yelling from apartment blocks. I'll leave it at that.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 5:03am
My mrs just told me (she is chinese)....that they have found some chinese medicine in china,that can deal to it .....but hey.....Hope so.....we need something pronto.

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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 7:30am

Many have suspected that China was under-reporting  by up to about tenfold. Leaked documents for one province confirm this.

Shandong

The internal data shared with The Epoch Times includes a breakdown of diagnostic results from all 16 prefectural-level municipalities in Shandong province, which were sent in an email to the disease control department of the Shandong health commission.

The Shandong CDC compiled daily statistical  https://i.epochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2020/02/e74b9a6b220da233624e34f01d3b2dda.zip" rel="nofollow - At times, the Shandong government reported one or two new diagnoses to the public, when the internal data showed much more.

  • On Feb. 22, for example, the government reported two newly diagnosed cases in the day prior, but the real data was 59.
  • On Feb. 20, the government reported two newly diagnosed cases for Feb. 19, but the real data was 49.
  • And on Feb. 19, the government reported one newly diagnosed case in the day prior, but the real data was 52.

 

For the period between Feb. 8 to Feb. 22, the government announced that there were 347 newly diagnosed cases, but the internal data shows 1,072 new patients—more than 3 times the published figure.

Diagnostic Kit Not Sufficient?

One Chinese researcher suggested that diagnostic kits alone would not be able to detect all the virus-infected patients.

“This disease [coronavirus] has a character, which is not all patients can be detected positive when use nucleic acid testing,” Wang Chen, director of China’s Academy of Medical Sciences and a critical care medicine expert,  http://china.caixin.com/2020-02-17/101516737.html" rel="nofollow - Wang explained that although nucleic acid testing is currently the only official test method that Chinese medical staff use to diagnose coronavirus, the result is not accurate.

“Only 30 to 50 percent of the patients present positive,” according to Wang.

He explained that all patients who test positive are infected with the coronavirus, but another 50 to 70 percent of patients are actually infected but cannot be detected by nucleic acid testing.

I don’t know the details of how this was determined. I believe there are two types of test. All tests generally are assessed for specificity and selectivity. Both are required to avoid false negatives and false positives.

Of course minimising testing also helps minimise results.



Posted By: Alan L
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 1:06pm
How can you believe any statistics from these guys?
Alan

Dr Li Wenliang, who was hailed a hero for raising the alarm about the coronavirus in the early days of the outbreak, has died of the infection.

His death was confirmed by the Wuhan hospital where he worked and was being treated,  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795" rel="nofollow - following conflicting reports about his condition on state media.

Dr Li, 34, tried to send a message to fellow medics about the outbreak at the end of December. Three days later police paid him a visit and told him to stop. He returned to work and caught the virus from a patient. He had been in hospital for at least three weeks.

He posted his story from his hospital bed last month on social media site Weibo.

"Hello everyone, this is Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital," the post begins.

It was a stunning insight into the botched response by local authorities in Wuhan in the early weeks of the coronavirus outbreak.

Dr Li was working at the centre of the outbreak in December when he noticed seven cases of a virus that he thought looked like Sars - the virus that led to a global epidemic in 2003. The cases were thought to come from the Huanan Seafood market in Wuhan and the patients were in quarantine in his hospital.

  • On 30 December he sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them about the outbreak and advising they wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

What Dr Li didn't know then was that the disease that had been discovered was an entirely new coronavirus.

Image copyrightWEIBOImage captionAfter falling sick, Dr Li said on Weibo that he wondered why authorities were still saying no medical staff had been infected

Four days later he was summoned to the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter. In the letter he was accused of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order".

"We solemnly warn you: If you keep being stubborn, with such impertinence, and continue this illegal activity, you will be brought to justice - is that understood?" Underneath in Dr Li's handwriting is written: "Yes, I do."

He was one of eight people who police said were being investigated for "spreading rumours".



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Legasea Legend member


Posted By: pompey
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 1:46pm
The S&P recovered abit last night and the NZSX is up today as well. 
You would think the virus is under control or stocks have been under sold.


Posted By: Catchelot
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 2:52pm
Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

My mrs just told me (she is chinese)....that they have found some chinese medicine in china,that can deal to it .....but hey.....Hope so.....we need something pronto.

Interesting claim, they have found some medicine, interesting seem it takes in general 6 -18+ months to produce approved vaccines.

Lets see what this found medicine will do.LOL


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"The sea, once it casts its spell, holds one in its net of wonder forever." - Jacques Cousteau


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 3:28pm
Apparently it's called quercetin,a compound in alot of fruit and veg that is a pigment. Yeah I don't think it's gonna be that straight forward to be honest. They also say anti malaria medicine seems to work as well. Pretty pointless as it's been proven some people who have recovered have been re-infected a few weeks later. The long incubation period of 24 days and the asymptomatic virus shedding means there is almost no hope of containing it I think.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 4:15pm
I've just heard someone from the ministry on the radio talking about a major anti-corona virus campaign they are launching.  The main thrust of it is telling people to wash their hands.  I'm no scientist, but I think if that was all it took to stop it spreading they might have had it under control around the world by now.  It didn't inspire confidence.


Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 4:23pm
I believe this stops the spread of diseases murders rapist paedophiles etc





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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 4:31pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51628484" rel="nofollow - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51628484

The deputy minister, Iraj Harirchi, on Monday denied covering up the scale of the outbreak. He appeared in physical discomfort as he spoke to reporters.

Iran has reported 95 cases, but the actual number is thought to be higher.

The director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said the sudden increase in cases in countries outside China is "deeply concerning".

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington was concerned that Iran may have concealed "vital details" about its outbreak and urged all nations to "tell the truth about the coronavirus".

More people have died in Iran from the virus than anywhere else outside China. The two countries have strong trading links.

The other countries currently in the spotlight are South Korea and Italy, where cases have surged in recent days.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366" rel="nofollow - https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366

symptoms,seems similar to meningitis/menigacocal



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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 4:39pm
Originally posted by Catchelot Catchelot wrote:

Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

My mrs just told me (she is chinese)....that they have found some chinese medicine in china,that can deal to it .....but hey.....Hope so.....we need something pronto.


Interesting claim, they have found some medicine, interesting seem it takes in general 6 -18+ months to produce approved vaccines.

Lets see what this found medicine will do.LOL


They will probably say Rhino horn gets rid of it.


Posted By: Catchelot
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 9:13pm
Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

Originally posted by Catchelot Catchelot wrote:

Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

My mrs just told me (she is chinese)....that they have found some chinese medicine in china,that can deal to it .....but hey.....Hope so.....we need something pronto.


Interesting claim, they have found some medicine, interesting seem it takes in general 6 -18+ months to produce approved vaccines.

Lets see what this found medicine will do.LOL


They will probably say Rhino horn gets rid of it.

LOLClap


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"The sea, once it casts its spell, holds one in its net of wonder forever." - Jacques Cousteau


Posted By: puff
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 9:14pm
Or bovine effluent


Posted By: Alan L
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2020 at 9:43pm
Nah, bears gall bile.
Alan


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Legasea Legend member


Posted By: cirrus
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 5:46pm
First case comfirmed in N.Z.  Someone who came in from Iran last week.
Dont they know there is a major outbreak in iran.

The govt has failed to protect our borders.
They have failed to protect our citizens.

Meanwhile in addition we watch our dollar fall off a cliff.


Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:02pm
Look at that.


Posted By: TM.
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:08pm
I’m self isolating somewhere near the 200m mark in the bay of islands tomorrow


Posted By: Alan L
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:19pm
TM - how long you planning for? 14 days?
Can anyone join in?
Alan


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Legasea Legend member


Posted By: Daniel K
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:21pm
A WHO report that recently came out showed the following numbers. 

80% of those with the virus have presented mild cold symptoms. 
3-5% of those with the virus ended up with the flu. 
Of this 3-5% group, 2.5% of them have required hospitalization. 

Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, or getting in your car, or getting king hit by some munter and cracking your skull after a night in the town. 

Also, no, it is not man made as thing designed to cull the weaker members of society lolololol.  If you believe that, then let me tell you that I have the cure for the virus. It only costs $500 a bottle, and it looks and tastes oddly like water in a pump bottle but it sure as heck is not. Cash only please. 




Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:34pm
Saw stats this morning

15% over 80 die
6% over 60 die
All others less than 1%

Add the fact that China has terrible air pollution that surely would have an impact on numbers.


Posted By: Daniel K
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:42pm
Sure, but those numbers are from China where air pollution would be one of the better problems. Not enough medical resources, state-reliant regional capacity, general poor societal infrastructure, and highly concentrated populations are better explanations of the higher age bracket fatalities IMO. It would be unwise to confer China's statistics and use them as a metric to judge the mortality rates of other countries. 


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 7:43pm
Yeah Daniel is right. Every year an outbreak of the flu makes 10% of the world population ask to be locked up or self quarentine,shuts automobile factory's,tanks the stock market,brings the military out to control quarentine (south Korea).
That bucket of sand next to you empties a little more each time you pull your head out my man.

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: brmbrm
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 9:14pm
Originally posted by Daniel K Daniel K wrote:

...Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, ...

No.  Mortality rate about 0.05-0.1% from flu, Covid about 2-5%.  Its early days though so things could change.

Imagine just saying "**** it, do nothing, open the borders, no quarantine/isolation.  Half the population will get it then its over."

Would you go for that?  It would mean maybe 80,000 dead in NZ


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 9:45pm
And the number of active cases steadily continues to decline. Media beat up. On the news tonight cases in Iran have apparently exploded.
They have 270 cases. Out of a population of 81 million


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 10:13pm
Originally posted by Daniel K Daniel K wrote:

A WHO report that recently came out showed the following numbers. 

80% of those with the virus have presented mild cold symptoms. 
3-5% of those with the virus ended up with the flu. 
Of this 3-5% group, 2.5% of them have required hospitalization. 

Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, or getting in your car, or getting king hit by some munter and cracking your skull after a night in the town. 

Also, no, it is not man made as thing designed to cull the weaker members of society lolololol.  If you believe that, then let me tell you that I have the cure for the virus. It only costs $500 a bottle, and it looks and tastes oddly like water in a pump bottle but it sure as heck is not. Cash only please. 

Sorry I doubt that this is an accurate representation of the report.

True 80% have mild symptoms. 20% require hospitalisation and 5 % intensive care is my recollection.


Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 10:03am
This flu will be with us for along time, most proberly evole every yr as do all the others.
 As with the others it will hit in critical fashion, the eldery and those who have pre existing conditions.
It just this one hits those with pre existing bit harder.
 It doesnt hit the young as hard. And the pre existing seems to be conditions related to obesity , even thu obesity may not be the cause of those conditions.
 Even the common flu hits those ppl harder and those with lung conditions.

End of the day it is just another flu going around the world that hits a bit harder.. we will have a vaccination for it when its near over...and maybe a follow up that covers the next version of the virus next yr.. as with out other flus

The big effect is going to be economic panic...




Posted By: pjc
Date Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 11:48am
Just wait till it gets a hold in Africa.

So this virus cannot be airborne if you think about it logically,350 passengers + crew on ship tied up in Japan and 3 or 4 show symptom??yet the ventallation systems would be running so not all those onboard contract it??same as those on a plane,yet if it was measles chances are a high percentage would get them if not vaccinated against measles.

Or have I missed something.


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some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.


Posted By: NZTurtle
Date Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 1:34pm

No.  Mortality rate about 0.05-0.1% from flu, Covid about 2-5%.  Its early days though so things could change.

[/QUOTE]

Hmmmm. And that is the issue - maybe 30 times more fatal than the common flu.

Yes, there will be other factors such as pollution, health systems, etc. However, travel etc is much easier so containment will be harder.

There have been other flu historically with similar mortality rates to Coronavirus but not our common flu' (DYOR). 

The economic impact is/will be significant and that will probably affect everyone, even if you don't have Covoid.




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http://www.legasea.co.nz" rel="nofollow">


Posted By: fish-feeder
Date Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 3:12pm
A little worse than the flu apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks

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dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 10:34am
On 26/2 the South Korean cases were 977. Today South Korea 813 new cases, total 3.150, 16 deaths, one case of reinfection. Partly the effect of congregations of close contact and partly high levels of testing - roughly 30k tests v USA 466. Still roughly up 330% in 4 days! Well above the expected rate of doubling in 7 days and compounding at 33% roughly daily not 10. Of course circumstances vary so it is illustrative not definitive.


Posted By: chris_gee
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 3:09pm
Update (1630ET): The BBC reports that in Daegu, South Korea, 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus. 1300 had symptoms & 600 did not. Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus . BUT out of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with coronavirus.Update (1630ET): Now 3500 odd as they update 3 times pd.
So one person led to the infection of say 1500 others. Proximity of course but....



Posted By: brmbrm
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 8:42pm
Well I will take my chances with the flu, but then every year I get the latest flu jab.

Now with the more deadly Covid-19 I might have to wait a year or two for that jab, or more, which is one reason why slowing the rate of infection down is so important.

First death in US: daughter lives a few miles from that, i was there 7 months ago.  Self isolation in Tutukaka sounds pretty damn good


Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:22pm
According to an acclaimed  virologist here in Australia...he claims everyone will get it here in Australia....
The statistics(should we choose to believe them) claim less than 5% fatalities at the hands of this thing......thats not bad !
so in some ways i say " Ok...bring it on".......lets see what you got and lets get it over with because once you have had it....you cant get it again because your body builds anti bodies against every cold you get ,so you CANT get it again.......yes it can mutate and come back different next time....The sars component of this virus is where it will kill you !!!......so give up smoking right now folks(come with me if you want to live ! hahaha)....unless you want to drown in your own mucous !...this virus will look for your weakness and symptoms vary widely between humans......some people dont have any or just a sore throat....so you dont know how you are going to react....its almost like allergic symptoms.
But what the virologist above said = I dont agree with that.....not everyone will catch it......My son used to bring stuff back from day care @ 4 all the time and give it to my mrs but i never got them !
I havent had a cold for 2 years.........So i wont be wearing any fruking mask and i will be strong as an ox for when this prik shows up.Clap
p.s I have tricks up my sleeve too....In sydney they are stocking up and buying all the stuff off the shelves eg medicines/paracetamol/noodles/rice etc...shelves are empty.


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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:33pm
Originally posted by brmbrm brmbrm wrote:

Well I will take my chances with the flu, but then every year I get the latest flu jab.

Now with the more deadly Covid-19 I might have to wait a year or two for that jab, or more, which is one reason why slowing the rate of infection down is so important.

First death in US: daughter lives a few miles from that, i was there 7 months ago.  Self isolation in Tutukaka sounds pretty damn good
TRUE bottom bit...Can catch something else there insteadLOL


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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: brmbrm
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:33pm
Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

....5% fatalities at the hands of this thing......thats not bad !

Err, really?  That's about 250,000 dead people in NZ.  About 1 dead person every 5 households.  So for you, the house next door each side plus the house next door to that, one corpse in 2020.  How many do you normally see to make it "not bad"?  Life expectancy of 20 not bad? I disagree


Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 3:15am
Originally posted by brmbrm brmbrm wrote:

Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

....5% fatalities at the hands of this thing......thats not bad !

Err, really?  That's about 250,000 dead people in NZ.  About 1 dead person every 5 households.  So for you, the house next door each side plus the house next door to that, one corpse in 2020.  How many do you normally see to make it "not bad"?  Life expectancy of 20 not bad? I disagree
Think you got the wrong end of the stick....Thats in the total number of people infected so farLOL...The figure was huge ...less than 5% of that huge figure........5% of nz small population would be pretty dire for sure broConfused
sure you can google what i said......its out there to be seen....But hey.....this is the media we are talking about.


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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: laidbackdood
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 3:18am
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" rel="nofollow - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death rate well under 5% in fact.

This chart makes interesting reading.Wink


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Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.


Posted By: Motorhead
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 7:13am
Originally posted by laidbackdood laidbackdood wrote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" rel="nofollow - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death rate well under 5% in fact.

This chart makes interesting reading.Wink



Cases with an outcome is the stat of relevance if you choose that website as your source.
45729 closed cases with 42728 recovered and 3001 deaths gives 7% death rate.

The others infected are not closed cases as they are still receiving care or recovering.


Posted By: FishMan
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 9:08am
Here's my take on the current situation:

Very soon the flight bans will be lifted, simply because every country will have the disease. We might see a shift to three day medical certificates though, as in the current Samoa situation. Whatever the case airlines are going to take a major hit. It is not going to turn around soon.

The cruise ship industry is as good as dead and buried. They already had a problem with norovirus. Now coronavirus. It is going to be a very long wait to see this turn around.

Many people will simply chose to isolate themselves and stay at home. This could go on for over a year. Sweaty nightclub anyone? Rugby match? The sorts of things affected are only hindered by ones imagination. Schools will probably close.

We live in interesting times...



Posted By: cirrus
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 10:00am
Lots of panic buying as N.Z prepares for armageddon. Supermarket shelves empty as i witnessed yesterday.
An indictment on the Government and media. No one believes them.


Posted By: Big -Dave
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 10:23am
People in NZ in general are woefully unprepared for any sort of disaster. Average home has no emergency plan or supplies.
There will be no starving masses.
Only a few very worried or physically vulnerable will self isolate.
I generally don't go near large crowds anyway. But I travel daily and visit a lot of people.
I am not too worried as there is little the average person can do about something out of their control.


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you can't fix an idiot with duct tape, but it does muffle them for a while...


Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 11:01am
Stats..
 One can make them say what ever you like.. espec if a media reporter wanting to make front page..or a polly.

Looking at some basic ballpark critical/ death stats.
Over 80 14/15%
 Under 60 varies from 0.2 to 1.3.

 Pre existing conditions
 Heart  about 12%  which is a large proportion of those over 80yrs
 Dieitbeties  about 8% 
 lungs 7% 
 Cancers etc 6%

No pre existing conditions  under 1%

So if over 80yrs and have pre existing health conditions a bit grim...If dont chances of good out look.

 If under 60 outlook good even if have pre existing conditions that are not extreme outlook pretty damn good. Even symptoms pretty mild.

Under 40yrs ave around 0.4% and again will depend on extreme pre existing conditions

Chances of getting the Coro are damn good.
 If fit basically healthy, chances are you will not get a sick as normal flu ( my not even know you have got it) and excellent chance of survival
 If over 70/80 and not in good condition...a lot of things including a normal cold or flu can cause major issues as well.. and have very high critical /death stats)
 If under 70/80 even if have mild conditions , may get rather ill, with good chances of being ok.


 This is not the spanish flu of the 1917s..
 The care and drugs to treat symptoms today where not around then.

 Government/ pollies and media have a lot to answer for..

As my Grandfather used to say , old saying from trenches of WW!,
" Count to 10 very sloooowly , then panic in an orderly manner."




Posted By: FizFisho
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 5:44pm
Back to OP question.

Its a pretty mild inter species virus. There are some 1500 predicted that if travel to humans are stronger than the great plague.

Looking at death rates it seems about 4%, but I think early detection, quarantine and QUALITY respiratory specialists and most 1st world should be ok

It may cause down turn in NZ economy given we have gone from a US based economy in 2002 to a Chinese one, as you said, tourism major issue.

NZ was rated by bloomberg as the 2nd most over inflated property market likely to have a major correction (possibly up to 40% which is about how over inflated the sheep pushed the market). But it would take a major external event as NZs economy is currently strong, interest rates are low and NZ has major banking bail out packages. So yes its WAY over inflated, but I think will take more than this virus to correct it.

My cousin lives in China. His thoughts are the wet markets need some kind of control. I tend to agree looking at the meats being mixed via live animals being executed.

Not overly concerned. There have been WAY worse viruses in history, there are far worse to come.


Posted By: brmbrm
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 6:41pm
Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Lots of panic buying as N.Z prepares for armageddon. Supermarket shelves empty as i witnessed yesterday.
An indictment on the Government and media. No one believes them.

Don't know how you can blame the government for Covid-19.  To be fair, its the experts who say what should be done, and so far I reckon things have been pretty well handled in NZ.

The acid test will come when there is a substantial outbreak, and it will happen sometime, whoever is in government


Posted By: Muppet
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 7:10pm
There is no way the health system will cope with a major outbreak.

I thought there was an army of woke ready to work in the health system too.


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 7:22pm
Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Lots of panic buying as N.Z prepares for armageddon. Supermarket shelves empty as i witnessed yesterday.
An indictment on the Government and media. No one believes them.



No it just shows how ill informed the average person is


Posted By: whippersnappyr
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 7:26pm
This the most reputable medical journal in the world provides a stark contrast to the hysteria here and in the media

“ On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387" rel="nofollow - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387


Posted By: reel crayze
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 8:00pm
Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Lots of panic buying as N.Z prepares for armageddon. Supermarket shelves empty as i witnessed yesterday.
An indictment on the Government and media. No one believes them.
 
Interesting bit on Nat Radio [ this afternoon i think it was ] where the comment was made it was mainly Chinese people stocking up ie noodles totally sold out. The reason the commentator said was NZers trusted their govt to tell them the truth and the Chinese didnt trust the  govt they had left and it was a carry over to NZ.


Posted By: Motorhead
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by reel crayze reel crayze wrote:

Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Lots of panic buying as N.Z prepares for armageddon. Supermarket shelves empty as i witnessed yesterday.
An indictment on the Government and media. No one believes them.


 
Interesting bit on Nat Radio [ this afternoon i think it was ] where the comment was made it was mainly Chinese people stocking up ie noodles totally sold out. The reason the commentator said was NZers trusted their govt to tell them the truth and the Chinese didnt trust the  govt they had left and it was a carry over to NZ.


Or the Chinese doing the “panic” buying have heard through relatives back in China something we haven’t.
Iranian government has issued warnings to their media to apply filters when disclosing Coronavirus reports or figures.
Time will tell particularly as we head in to our flu/winter period.


Posted By: Big -Dave
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 8:49pm
Toilet paper seems to be top of many people's shopping lists....

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you can't fix an idiot with duct tape, but it does muffle them for a while...


Posted By: Motorhead
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 10:20pm
Originally posted by Big -Dave Big -Dave wrote:

Toilet paper seems to be top of many people's shopping lists....


The Pak n Save I visited this afternoon had no flour left on the shelves.
Maybe those that missed out on toilet paper are going to block themselves up with flour.😂


Posted By: Kevin.S
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 7:59am
 
Interesting bit on Nat Radio [ this afternoon i think it was ] where the comment was made it was mainly Chinese people stocking up ie noodles totally sold out. The reason the commentator said was NZers trusted their govt to tell them the truth and the Chinese didnt trust the  govt they had left and it was a carry over to NZ.
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I did notice when they reported on this on the news over the weekend that all the queues they showed were made up of 99% Asians.


Posted By: Mr Moritz
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 9:23am
Bit of useful info here..

https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/02-03-2020/what-we-know-about-how-people-contract-the-coronavirus-and-who-is-most-at-risk/?fbclid=IwAR3jfONaiLcocM_0HsPrT7Vje3kSwliEcQ-P0o9_u7ARkF7M3MkwA1jjFyo" rel="nofollow - https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/02-03-2020/what-we-know-about-how-people-contract-the-coronavirus-and-who-is-most-at-risk/?fbclid=IwAR3jfONaiLcocM_0HsPrT7Vje3kSwliEcQ-P0o9_u7ARkF7M3MkwA1jjFyo


Posted By: FizFisho
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 9:43am
Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

This the most reputable medical journal in the world provides a stark contrast to the hysteria here and in the media

“ On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387" rel="nofollow - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

There is Hysteria? WTF, kiwis need to travel more. I find the AVG kiwi is so isolated in economic and general global thinking due to only ever having been in NZ and we are so isolated, which shows with our our gum nit like Media (mike hosking, what a .....). The word Hysteria reminds me of kiwis and the property market. Sheep, nobody wants to get caught by the big bad wolf, but if the big one does come the irony is property is what will catch them out. Who knows what the percentage of hysteria per racial ancestry really is. But Chinese are use to these cross species diseases. So surprised somewhat Chinese Kiwis would be in hysteria.

I read an article on the NY Times, which discusses how society turns to chaos and one of the first things, much like the great depression is, people turn to prejudice, and racial issues is one of the first to start.

Ive got the totals for each country and i had death rate in China at 4% so is good to know its less.

83k~ cases in china, 90k~ cases in total.

Yes its worse than swin flue in spreading (so far 10x), but mortality is about the same.

As everyone keeps saying, its the elderly with existing healthy issues ie like my mum who just died, had emphasema, if she caught it, well yeah....

People are going to catch it and go home and die instead of going to the hospital?

I dont see how NZ has done anything bad yet, the case from Iran they tested 3 times before detecting it which shows the care they are taking with its symptoms and then they quarantined the whole family.

Really this is down to China manning up and shutting it down, which perhaps they were a bit behind the 8 ball, but the epicentre is now in full lock down.

I personally do not feel this is one of the big ones yet. It does indicate how much pressure 1st world countries should be putting on countries transitioning in growth stage to 1st world how much care they need to be putting on food processing and cross contamination, ie wet markets.

My cousin (kiwi) in China is saying dont believe the western media hype, but I think hes also being a bit bravado about it.

The realty is if you are over 80 and have health issues, your chances of dying are high in reality from many things, 2% from this just adds a fraction more chance to it all.

Unless mortality rates start sky rocketing, Im not concerned beyond watching numbers.




Posted By: Steps
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 10:07am
Panic buying at supermarkets.
 Again media hype.

 Read the headlines and the articles and they give the impression this is nation wide.
B.S.
 At best isolated shops and communities.

We went past and into several local supermarkets right in the middle of the PANIC BUY periods.
Yep car park  reasonably full.. but hey it usually is at on that day and time.
Nps buying what we needed.. except 10L distilled water..
All the other bottled water was low but good on the shelves.
Waited a few minutes, the truck was being unloaded and soon we had our 10L distilled water for our Brevelle espresso machine.
 No way can we go without our fresh ground beans espresso.
We dont need distilled water , but the rural rain water tanks are dry due to the drought and the town supply has high mineral content that long term ( 3 to5yrs) even with maintenance stuffs the machine.
Remember the drought, biggest in a decade..

Everyone forgotten about the effects of drought and the on going economic consequences?



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