Auckland will be back into Level 3 lockdown

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:15pm
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Originally posted by DIY DIY wrote:

Is anyone else annoyed that Tipping Point and the Chase has been ruined by the ‘Unite Against Covid’ banner popping up and obscuring the answers at the bottom of the screen. Seems to be affecting every aspect of our lives.

I'm glad I'm not the only one..
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:19pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:41pm
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Ha! yep for once I actually agree with the magnanimous prick.
We aint gonna beat this thing. Lockdowns are such a draconian waste of time and money. The rest of the world is now basically heading for heard immunity..... we are just delaying the inevitable.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:54pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

[URL=https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington]https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington[/URL][DIV]
[/DIV][DIV]So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.[/DIV][DIV]Alan[/DIV]

[DIV]
[/DIV][DIV]Alan the positive predictive value of a test, even one with high specificity like the covid PCR depends on the prevalence of the disease. Since this is extremely low in New Zealand, there will be quite a few false positives.[/DIV][DIV]
[/DIV][DIV]Whprsnpr - can you explain that again? The test works on replicating the virus DNA. So if it misses the DNA in a swab you can get an erroneous -ve - stats say 15-20%.[/DIV][DIV]On the other hand to get the +ve it has to find traces of the DNA, and replicate it. And does this with 99+% accuracy. So when it gets a +ve, it is 99+% likely the result is good.[/DIV][DIV]Can you explain your summary.[/DIV][DIV]Regards[/DIV][DIV]Alan[/DIV][DIV]
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If you test 10000 people (which they did overnight, I believe) with a test that is 99.9% specific (highly accurate by test standards) you would still expect, statistically, around 10 false positive results, where something odd happened with the assay, or where you had some similar but non-COVID DNA in there that was picked up.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:08pm
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Al, really.

Giving air to such waffle is embarrassing for you.

Consider this,
We are the best in the world at beating this thing.

Hell we are one of the greatest countries to live in populated by some of the best humans in the world.

We have the best nation in the world to fight and win the skirmishes.

It's a war, it may take years.

World wars have lasted longer.

What it shows is your metal.

Your metal is your committement to yourself and country.


What I see is a population diluted with options and false environments that suggest there are options.

There aren't,

It's a fight ,

It's a fight to save our families,
Our country,
Our mates,
A dollar in our pocket to feed our families,
Our freedoms.

If you want to live in paradise
GODZONE as I know it.

Dig in, Dig in for years.
Fight for this great place.
Fight to do anything we want.

Support the muppets control systems.
But smack them hard for any failings.
Call them out for there failings fast and loud.

We can be free of Covid but not the threat.

Hell I want to go fishing. Finding weather windows is hard enough without a diluted challenge on fighting this Covid crap.
Just cruising in my now sweetas pimped out Southern 755 HT0!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:25pm
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MATTOO I shall wear that , well said Beer
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:28pm
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"If you test 10000 people (which they did overnight, I believe) with a test that is 99.9% specific (highly accurate by test standards) you would still expect, statistically, around 10 false positive results, where something odd happened with the assay, or where you had some similar but non-COVID DNA in there that was picked up."

Yep - get that. But then you do a test that has a 15-20% chance of getting it wrong if you have the virus (even greater past infectious point), and get a different result.
So my Q is, why would you believe the 15-20% failure rate test over the 99.9% success one?
Alan

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:28pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

The Minister of Kindness won't have a bar of that.
But one of the issues with a vaccine is it works least on those with weak(er)  immune system - ie the elderly. So they are still going to be at enhanced risk while the pandemic continues around the globe.
But your plan has some merit - now all you need to do is get elected on it.
Alan
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Be yourself; everyone else is already taken
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:34pm
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Uplifting Mattoo

Though I think the virus ignores national pride and slogans.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:39pm
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Winston eh
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 6:52pm
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Who knows where the latest round of c19 has come from,lying dormant in someone or carrier has had it and thought yeah/nah just a seasonal change.

Jacinda is in a bind.Does she cause financial hardship to several thousand through varies levels or does she tell her National health board"Great thanks for your recommendations but we will take the risk"
If she ignores them and 30 people got the virus and 5 died,some in here would say the govt  to be held responsible,
Now she has taken the health boards advice she gets blamed for financial hardship.
I wouldnt want her job.

Just keep looking at Victoria/NSW Herd immunity in action but is it your family/friends dying over there???
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:14pm
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Originally posted by Fishb8 Fishb8 wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

The Minister of Kindness won't have a bar of that.
But one of the issues with a vaccine is it works least on those with weak(er)  immune system - ie the elderly. So they are still going to be at enhanced risk while the pandemic continues around the globe.
But your plan has some merit - now all you need to do is get elected on it.
Alan
I'm close to 72 and ain't leaving without a fight!

I literally laughed out loud then fishb8. That is the best post in the thread! 👍
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:16pm
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Thanks guys.

I don't do slogans Muppet, understand your reply though in these decades of shallow souls that bled your will to live.

I'm a doer.
A fighter.
I ignore the ignorant shallow views of many public environments.



Just cruising in my now sweetas pimped out Southern 755 HT0!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:18pm
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Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

Originally posted by Fishb8 Fishb8 wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

The Minister of Kindness won't have a bar of that.
But one of the issues with a vaccine is it works least on those with weak(er)  immune system - ie the elderly. So they are still going to be at enhanced risk while the pandemic continues around the globe.
But your plan has some merit - now all you need to do is get elected on it.
Alan
I'm close to 72 and ain't leaving without a fight!

I literally laughed out loud then fishb8. That is the best post in the thread! 👍

Just take the attitude fishb8 that if the virus comes near you ,it will be the virus and not you that has to go  into quarantine.LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:38pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

"If you test 10000 people (which they did overnight, I believe) with a test that is 99.9% specific (highly accurate by test standards) you would still expect, statistically, around 10 false positive results, where something odd happened with the assay, or where you had some similar but non-COVID DNA in there that was picked up."

Yep - get that. But then you do a test that has a 15-20% chance of getting it wrong if you have the virus (even greater past infectious point), and get a different result.
So my Q is, why would you believe the 15-20% failure rate test over the 99.9% success one?
Alan


What test are you referring to when saying 15-20% failure rate? Antibody testing? If so that's irrelevant these confirmed cases are based on PCR testing. If a PCR result looks slightly suspicious its generally good practice to confirm with a PCR that targets a different sequence of the genome.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:52pm
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I still feel that the people who failed, we're those who felt unwell, and continued to go out and work/mingle.
The message hasn't got through, IF YOU ARE UNWELL, STAY HOME AND GET TESTED..
it's not that difficult is it?
you can't fix an idiot with duct tape, but it does muffle them for a while...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:53pm
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Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

Winston eh

Well it is obviously a Govt. managed isolation breach.

Good on him for speaking the obvious.

Well that is my educated guess. Lol
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:55pm
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Originally posted by Toyz Toyz wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

"If you test 10000 people (which they did overnight, I believe) with a test that is 99.9% specific (highly accurate by test standards) you would still expect, statistically, around 10 false positive results, where something odd happened with the assay, or where you had some similar but non-COVID DNA in there that was picked up."

Yep - get that. But then you do a test that has a 15-20% chance of getting it wrong if you have the virus (even greater past infectious point), and get a different result.
So my Q is, why would you believe the 15-20% failure rate test over the 99.9% success one?
Alan


What test are you referring to when saying 15-20% failure rate? Antibody testing? If so that's irrelevant these confirmed cases are based on PCR testing. If a PCR result looks slightly suspicious its generally good practice to confirm with a PCR that targets a different sequence of the genome.
The current test has a 15-20% failure rate at picking + cases. Due to the swab process - not always in the nose or mouth .
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:57pm
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Originally posted by Clutch Clutch wrote:

Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

Winston eh

Well it is obviously a Govt. managed isolation breach.

Good on him for speaking the obvious.
My money is on the punjab escapee who took selfies in the supermarket. He later tested +ve.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 7:58pm
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Prediction - from a source that prob would have inside info because of the industry he is in.
Akl L4, NZ L3.
Alan
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