Auckland will be back into Level 3 lockdown

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 1:52pm
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I'm thinking we will be goung to level 4 very soon .
The four that tested + on tuesday have a link to one of my co-workers , that co-worker was stood down from work pending a test .
I just got a call from work saying to stay home , inform my staff to stay home and wait further instructions .
Co worker is a truck driver at my site , at the completion of his shift he parked his truck in the way of some material , I had to shift his truck , placing my hands where his hands had been .
I'm sure I didn't wash my hands after , don't even know what I did with my hands after , maybe picked my nose ....
Bugger ......Ouch
COVID is no joke !
One former patient was so brain damaged after , he thought he won an election he lost by 7 million votes .
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:07pm
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Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:09pm
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The unfortunate bit is Akl is probably going to bear the brunt of these temp lockdowns over an extended period. Very disruptive for Akl. But it has the bulk of the isolation facilities and the primary airlink. Not to mention the port.
So any failures in the system most likely to happen in Akl.
poor buggers in hospitality business. on/off/on/off.
Alan

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:11pm
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Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
The other problem tho is where did this cluster get infected? Almost certain there is a carrier out there that hasn't been picked up yet.
Hard to explain otherwise. Almost like we need to find another cluster somewhere - soon.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:13pm
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Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
That's true , though the four from Tuesday got it from somewhere unknown at this stage .
COVID is no joke !
One former patient was so brain damaged after , he thought he won an election he lost by 7 million votes .
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:17pm
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Ardern promised eradication. She failed.  Will she own it.

Proves that our past level 4 failed.
To do the same and expect different results would be bonkers.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:18pm
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https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:09pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

Daughter in SI just informed me they believe there is a case in Timaru.
If so... Game Over.
Alan
We had loads of cases in S Island (and North) and we got over them.
Not game over but restart after a drinks break.
Be yourself; everyone else is already taken
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:16pm
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Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

This govt needs to be held accountable for their mistakes.......
Yes they do.
Have you seen Covid news from overseas?
99% of governments should be held accountable.
Be yourself; everyone else is already taken
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:23pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
Alan

Alan the positive predictive value of a test, even one with high specificity like the covid PCR depends on the prevalence of the disease. Since this is extremely low in New Zealand, there will be quite a few false positives.




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:24pm
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No one else is going for elimination.
And we have it easier to control.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:38pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:50pm
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Originally posted by Fishb8 Fishb8 wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

Daughter in SI just informed me they believe there is a case in Timaru.
If so... Game Over.
Alan
We had loads of cases in S Island (and North) and we got over them.
Not game over but restart after a drinks break.
Well, yes - what I was meaning was game over in terms of just Akl lockdown. Everybody back to where we were previously. No fishing for any of us. But hopefully not.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:01pm
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Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
Alan

Alan the positive predictive value of a test, even one with high specificity like the covid PCR depends on the prevalence of the disease. Since this is extremely low in New Zealand, there will be quite a few false positives.

Whprsnpr - can you explain that again? The test works on replicating the virus DNA. So if it misses the DNA in a swab you can get an erroneous -ve - stats say 15-20%.
On the other hand to get the +ve it has to find traces of the DNA, and replicate it. And does this with 99+% accuracy. So when it gets a +ve, it is 99+% likely the result is good.
Can you explain your summary.
Regards
Alan




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:05pm
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Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

https://www.aier.org/article/authoritarianism-in-auckland/
That is a great read.
There is no script for this. The jury must still be out. And Sweden is not a clear winner - yet.
but NZ may get left in a hole. Clearly the strategy is about hope for a vaccine.
But there are a lot of major hurdles to that strategy - and not just a reliable vaccine. I suspect a vaccine is not actually going to change things a lot.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:21pm
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Reading these kind of articles and seeing the posts in here does make me wonder if we should let the boomer remover do it's thing. The savings in pensions could be used to pay back the national debt.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:50pm
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The Minister of Kindness won't have a bar of that.
But one of the issues with a vaccine is it works least on those with weak(er)  immune system - ie the elderly. So they are still going to be at enhanced risk while the pandemic continues around the globe.
But your plan has some merit - now all you need to do is get elected on it.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:54pm
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Second that motoin,
All say 'I",
Motoin is passed,
Beer
By Fly, Nothing Else,Just Fly
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:56pm
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Well it is a different POV. One we will have to take seriously if you want some sort of normal life and not road blocks either end of the city.

Add to the fact we are officially skint with the last 40 billion being printed by the RB. Start getting used to the idea of hyperinflation.

Try beating it out when the money stops.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:01pm
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Is anyone else annoyed that Tipping Point and the Chase has been ruined by the ‘Unite Against Covid’ banner popping up and obscuring the answers at the bottom of the screen. Seems to be affecting every aspect of our lives.
Oh what a smasher - two eggs and a rasher!
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