Metservice!

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    Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 11:11am
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Yesterday, out fishing on the Hauraki Gulf, winds were forecast at 10 knots. Wind speed was about 20 knots. Very unpleasant. If I’d known I would not Have gone. Metservice – could you make more effort to get the wind forecast vaguely right?

Anyone think they know a more accurate wind forecast?

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 11:38am
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Agree they are very good at that.  Weather forecasting is the only job you can get it wrong 90% of the time and not get fired. And when their forecast is clearly wrong regard wind strength they dont update,regardless, until the next update time.
If you listen carefully to the forecast you may hear the rattle of dice in the background.Smile

I check the following . 
1/metservice--(alias muppet service)

2/ Weatherwatch-including their wind maps.

3/ Swellmap.

4 Windguru.
This selection of four sites  will sometimes give you a choice of 4 totally different forecasts,
but usually will give something to go by.




Otherwise look at cloud movement ,direction and speed. 

Also if there is a hint of S.W the wind will often freshen just as the tide begins to run. Especially big tides. Happened the other day. Once it began to run in the S.W rapidly strengthened to 20knot +while forecast had it decreasing to 10 knots.  
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Kevin.S Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 12:19pm
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I like predictwind, as you can access several different forecast models and compare them side by side.  If they agree it gives me a good level of confidence in the forecast, but if they are quite different I'm more cautious.  I do look at metservice as well, but it doesn't have the best reputation.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Mr Moritz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 12:50pm
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Hmm 10 kts seems a bit light.
 In summer conditions as the land heats up (say by eleven) you will get a sea breeze effect, as cool air flows from sea onto land. Auckland is a bit unusual as we get a sea breeze from the west coast and another from east, with a convergence area where they meet. Depending on direction of calculated wind the sea breeze may increase the wind or decrease it. The convergence area (marked by a line of cumulus) usually starts about Kumeu and is pushed across to the east by strengthening westerly sea breeze. So what starts out as light morning breeze, can be 20 to 25 kts by afternoon.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote lingee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 1:47pm
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I check the tall poplar across the road , when top leaves have a light movement I no its 5-10 knot inner habour. that tree has serviced me well.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote letsgetem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2019 at 2:09pm
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knowing what the wind speed is, isn't a problem. Its knowing what it will be later in the day. Metservice is delightfully vague about timing - usually says, rising to 15 knots in the afternoon. When in the afternoon is crucial, its no use if it gets up while you are still out there. The trip back is the hard part.
 
I would have thought, it would be possible to forecast more accurately when a front is due, than broadly "in the afternoon". I think Metservice is lazy, or doesn't care enough about boating to be more precise.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Garry 23041 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2019 at 6:38am
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I have the "windy" app on my phone. It's a nice interactive map and is about as good as it gets in terms of accuracy imo.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Spudnik Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2019 at 7:21am
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Yr Weather works well for me. I use it in combination with Swellmap, if the two are roughly the same I'm good to go.
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I use the windy app mostly. There are times when metservice is predicting marine forecast of 2 or 3 and I've been out because windy predicts 3 to 5 knot winds and windy is right!

I know a lot of people say if you go by metservice accuracy you'll never get out
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Sufishent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2019 at 9:42am
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I went to a presentation by Bob McDavitt - https://www.metbob.com/ - and his advice about the Metservice forecast is that is there to advise the worst conditions for that area in that forecast period - ie not what will be present for the entire period.

Relying solely on Metservice for your boating/fishing decision is guaranteed to bring you disappointment - it is better to use one of the other weather sites that you allow you to focus on a specific area and time. 

I use a mix of sites - if they all align then I'm pretty confident the forecast will be accurate, but if they don't it comes down to my own analysis of the data. My got to sites are:

Windguru
Predictwind
Windy
Swellmap
Metvuw
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Mr Moritz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2019 at 10:55am
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Yeh. Bob took suddenly ill last week. Popped up to see him on Friday. He texted yesterday he was feeling better and thinks he will be discharged soon.
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it is usually very good but I find that most of the time the Metservice forecast comes towards the PredictWind one as the day in question gets closer.

On Monday 28th though it was miles off. Intended to cross back from the barrier and the forecast was 15knots, it was already 30 at Channel island and rough as guts so we turned back and stayed another day.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote letsgetem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2019 at 9:54am
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Think Ill look at 3- Metservice, Windguru, Windy.
 
Then record what happened.
 
And later decide, scientifically, how accuracy compares.
 
I need some way of measuring wind speed. Ill get one of those little wind meters. Anyone got one? I could listen on VHF to Coastguard Now Casting for wind speed, but my own meter should be easier and quicker.
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And later decide, scientifically, how accuracy compares.

 So you will be covering all the station points where weather taken...  not say 1/2 km away that maybe or maybe not in lea of than..?
 And take into account change of tide, current direction, for each, taking into account different tide times..?

If doing so I would suggest use the maps not the data for wind, swell, periods etc.

Having followed several of the above EVERY DAY looking at weather windows coming up 7 to 10 days out, and following them down to 3 days out.. then fishing 28 to near 40 of them each year for the last 6 or 7 yrs...
In that time cancelled 2 trips, 3 days out. and did not go where intended 3 times.. because of unexpected chop.
 And once coming home leat coming home 1/2 hr later than deadline...because knew was going to chop up in the channel, and did so rather more than I expected.. but about what was predicted..

Swell map  maps my go to Plus accurate tide tables...eg include the minor tide stations...eg man o war bay. cornwallis
 Not just the major like 'Auckland' or 'onehunga'
Also the accuracy today as against 5 or 6 yrs ago for the 3 and 7 day, much improved, espec change of season times.. spring/ autumn.. and hr by hr... spot on.. subject to going around a headland into current / lea of land.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Sufishent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2019 at 8:44am
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Originally posted by letsgetem letsgetem wrote:

Think Ill look at 3- Metservice, Windguru, Windy.
 
Then record what happened.
 
And later decide, scientifically, how accuracy compares.
 
I need some way of measuring wind speed. Ill get one of those little wind meters. Anyone got one? I could listen on VHF to Coastguard Now Casting for wind speed, but my own meter should be easier and quicker.

You should add in Metvuw to give you the corresponding isobar maps for reference.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Sufishent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2019 at 11:20am
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Originally posted by Sufishent Sufishent wrote:

[QUOTE=letsgetem] Think Ill look at 3- Metservice, Windguru, Windy.
 
Then record what happened.
 
And later decide, scientifically, how accuracy compares.
 
I need some way of measuring wind speed. Ill get one of those little wind meters. Anyone got one? I could listen on VHF to Coastguard Now Casting for wind speed, but my own meter should be easier and quicker.

You should add in Metvuw to give you the corresponding isobar maps for reference.

Based on Steps comments earlier I also suggest this site - https://tides4fishing.com/nz/auckland - for tides and tide strengths during the month (pick your appropriate spot for correct tide)
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote letsgetem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 5:21pm
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I wrote to Metservice, generally pointing what I thought are shortcomings in their forecasts for Hauraki Gulf.
 
The reply, was unfortunately entirely defensive, didn't accept any shortcomings.
 
Still, the more feedback the better. My "scientific" study of actual vs forecast, is yet to start; I am getting a wind meter to make accurate wind speed measurements.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote pjc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 7:05pm
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If you went by metservice on friday you would never of gone out and missed a great weekend,metserv had 20/25 knt sw for saturday,
windyty/predict wind,swell map had 5/8 se and dropping,which it did.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 7:09pm
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Full quodos for following up...
At the end of the day you are basically dealing with a bureaucratic 'government' dept.. as we know they can do no wrong...
 As to you comparing services and/or the data bases they choose to pay for / work off....many of us have been doing so for many yrs now.
For met service to change, they would need to change their data sources.. 
Primarily being a couple buoys out in the Tazzy, couple satellites and ship observations...And WoW data base  from the british equivalent of our met service.

In my opinion even NoAA US based is far more accurate...and one of the most common data bases for most weather programs and apps.
And as I and others who have also spent a long time comparing , daily ...for NZ/ pacific/ SEAsia, the NZ based Met Ocean (swell map and weatherwatch) 
 Now this is a private company with very serious links world wide and resources.. ocean buoys .. Rem that big wave a yr or so ago? and lately the floating buoy in the news?
 Met ocean.
Why dont we see many weather forecasters in NZ using it...because it costs, and not cheap. 
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote MATTOO Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 7:33pm
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Bugger, I've had to repost this.

Your complaints about an inaccurate science deserve no support.

If you can't realise as an outsdoorsman that the weather is a fluid an undertimanable action of nature than stay home and dont be a statistic or muppet .

Spend more time using multiple weather services, the poplar tree as above, your gut and the realistic awareness they **** can change.

Arguing about the realistic forecast of any device is beyond common sense.
Be a better out doors man and use the multiple tools available.

Your comments and questioning of a modern weather service are an embarrassment to Columbus, Cook, Blake and any other notable seaman.

You just want a gripe for a lack of something else to do.

Politely, I suggest, more work on your seamanship.
Just cruising in my now sweetas pimped out Southern 755 HT0!
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