Thanks SwellMap!

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    Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 1:18pm
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Titanium
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You're normally pretty good, but you screwed up this morning. 6 knot wind speed? Bollocks! Lucky I didn't venture too far offshore on the ski. It was a bumpy ride home! 
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote The Tamure Kid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 1:46pm
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As I got on the ferry this morning and saw a boat launching at the ramp, I thought - 'hmmm, that wind is more than the forecast'.It was grey and pretty grim, in contrast to yesterday.

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote waynorth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 3:08pm
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Metservice said the same, as did Predict Wind & Windfinder. Took a bit longer than they all forecast for that south westerly to drop off - pretty nice by lunchtime though. Fishing was tough though.
treat fish like fish
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Espresso Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 4:28pm
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Yesterday's weather was about half a day early i.e. the wind had dropped off through the night, rather than yesterday morning as forecast, it appears no change was made to forecasts...I was out yesterday in glorious conditions, so like a summers day :) . But commented on the Harbour bridge flags flying horizontally with SW winds at 6pm. Hmmmm.... Checking the NOW casting wind (Coastguard app) at 06:30 this morning I thought the readings were wrong, 35kt gusts at Channel I, 20-25kt at Tiri, flagged all thoughts of heading out.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 6:03pm
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Read the swell map maps .. the iso bars
 not the data pages...
 And rem its updated about 9:30 am
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote salty69 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 6:14pm
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I hope they got it right for this weekend. I've got two days on the water planned.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 6:44pm
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Hell yeah.. like I pstewd in another thread this morning.. we are going into the center of a large isobar circle now...
 By mid day /3pm sat will be in the center.. dead calm...
 Still good 6am sunday.. then around midday a NE breeze picks up.. so dont be around on an out going tide off the east coast (breeze against tide) .. which is also about midday...

 Do NOT underestimate a light breeze against tide...
 Do NOT just look at wind speed and direction!!!
 look at wind direction , speed, lea of land and tide change/ current direction.
 In most cases when ppl call out a weather forecast its because they have looked at ONLY wind speed...
not looked at iso bars, not looked at direction , not looked at current tide times.

Isobars.. if are winder than taranaki to east cape and/ or wider than sth turanangi to cape reinga.. good to go.

Its not rocket science..

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote letsgetem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 9:45am
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I do not think it is possible to forecast accurately when weather is unsettled, changeable, call it what you will. Look at the rain radar - shows how the fronts move and bend and change speed. Only takes a tiny difference in the shape or speed of a front and the wind changes. Wind change  say 2 hours later makes a big difference when you are out there.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Barrie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 10:21am
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agree with steps 100%. Dont look at anything other than the isobars. Dont look only before you go out look every day and see what the patterns are and get use to it. The isobars have very little to do with rain or sun but are 100% wind. The closer they are the more wind. You see them slowly coming together over the last few days would mean increasing wind.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote the demon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 10:55am
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Its only a forecast, its not set in stone that will be the outcome.
Still everyone goes on that they got it wrong . Its like Treasury making a forecast on interest rates over the next 2 years they can only go on a formular to predict the forecast. But factors change and the forecast isnt  accurate with rates raising .
The weather companies dont have the technolgy to be right 100%. Its up to every person going on the water to take ownership of there own actions from the weather to a safe boat . They got it right monday week ago , OIL.

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Marknado4000 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 11:21am
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Whats the best source of Isobar maps?
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Redfinger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 11:28am
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Im heading out tomorrow morning in a 4.3m fc console - expect it to be a bit lumpy first thing and cold with wind from the south around 10 knots. I would expect it to drop off late morning and swing north east by mid pm so should be a great day. But not ideal first thing.
Windyty has been pretty accurate for me.
I note that metservice saying now 10 knots minimum but variable in direction.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Pop Rocks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 11:34am
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This site has some good forecasting models.



Wind/SLP for the isobar forecast.  This is only a country overview with some specifics available.

Isobar forecasts here also: http://www.marineweather.co.nz/pressure
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote The Tamure Kid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 11:56am
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Originally posted by Marknado4000 Marknado4000 wrote:

Whats the best source of Isobar maps?

MetService 'rain' map has isobars with wind direction that goes out to 5 days ahead, and also a 'surface pressure' one.

Hopefully Steps can jump in with the page he's talking about on Swellmaps.
They have isobars on a couple of their maps, but to my eyes, not as clearly indicated as MetService, as their focus is colour coded wind strength etc.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote NZTurtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 12:16pm
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Like redinger, the best I have had so far has been windy.com - remarkably accurate, especially when compared to other sources.

But as steps said, its not just the wind but current and swell.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Muppet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 12:40pm
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Why complain the 20 knot swsters in spring is the best Gulf fishing conditions for snapper.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Kevin.S Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 1:23pm
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I like Predictwind as it has the facility to let you compare different forecasts next to each other.  If they are the same it gives me confidence that they are right, and if they are different it makes me more cautious about the result.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Mr Moritz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 2:01pm
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I think it was that weak occluded front thingy down off west coast South Island. It tweaked up the sw gradient ahead of it up the west coast North Island. Met are fcasting it to vanish about midday today if I remember Dan correctly...
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote piwikiwi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 2:05pm
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We are pretty spoilt for choice to be fair and they get it right most of the time. Spring is notorious for wind.
I make good use of the Port of Tauranga Harbour conditions page which has live wind swell updates every 2 mins. Its allowed me at 5am to go back to sleep if conditions havent flattened as forecast over night.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Sufishent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 3:13pm
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Originally posted by Redfinger Redfinger wrote:

Im heading out tomorrow morning in a 4.3m fc console - expect it to be a bit lumpy first thing and cold with wind from the south around 10 knots. I would expect it to drop off late morning and swing north east by mid pm so should be a great day. But not ideal first thing.
Windyty has been pretty accurate for me.
I note that metservice saying now 10 knots minimum but variable in direction.

Pretty much how I see the day going. Where are you heading to? We're thinking of Hatfield Beach and close in for the morning and head a bit deeper if the wind drops as forecast/hoped.
You can never have enough fishing tackle
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