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Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:02pm

Muppet

Titanium

Joined: 26 May 2004
Location: NZ
Status: Offline
Points: 19246

Look at that.

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:08pm

TM.

Gold

Joined: 19 Dec 2005
Location: Ruatangata
Status: Offline
Points: 759

I’m self isolating somewhere near the 200m mark in the bay of islands tomorrow

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:19pm

Alan L

Titanium

Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 5097

TM - how long you planning for? 14 days?

Can anyone join in?

Alan

Legasea Legend member

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:21pm

Daniel K

Platinum

Joined: 06 Aug 2010
Location: Tauranga
Status: Offline
Points: 1427

A WHO report that recently came out showed the following numbers.

80% of those with the virus have presented mild cold symptoms.

3-5% of those with the virus ended up with the flu.

Of this 3-5% group, 2.5% of them have required hospitalization.

Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, or getting in your car, or getting king hit by some munter and cracking your skull after a night in the town.

Also, no, it is not man made as thing designed to cull the weaker members of society lolololol. If you believe that, then let me tell you that I have the cure for the virus. It only costs $500 a bottle, and it looks and tastes oddly like water in a pump bottle but it sure as heck is not. Cash only please.

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:34pm

Muppet

Titanium

Joined: 26 May 2004
Location: NZ
Status: Offline
Points: 19246

Saw stats this morning

15% over 80 die
6% over 60 die
All others less than 1%

Add the fact that China has terrible air pollution that surely would have an impact on numbers.

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 6:42pm

Daniel K

Platinum

Joined: 06 Aug 2010
Location: Tauranga
Status: Offline
Points: 1427

Sure, but those numbers are from China where air pollution would be one of the better problems. Not enough medical resources, state-reliant regional capacity, general poor societal infrastructure, and highly concentrated populations are better explanations of the higher age bracket fatalities IMO. It would be unwise to confer China's statistics and use them as a metric to judge the mortality rates of other countries.

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 7:43pm

fish-feeder View Drop Down

Titanium

Joined: 29 Jan 2011
Location: Waiuku goodness
Status: Offline
Points: 3183

Yeah Daniel is right. Every year an outbreak of the flu makes 10% of the world population ask to be locked up or self quarentine,shuts automobile factory's,tanks the stock market,brings the military out to control quarentine (south Korea).
That bucket of sand next to you empties a little more each time you pull your head out my man.

dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 9:14pm

brmbrm

Platinum

Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 2261

Daniel K wrote:

...Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, ...

No. Mortality rate about 0.05-0.1% from flu, Covid about 2-5%. Its early days though so things could change.

Imagine just saying "**** it, do nothing, open the borders, no quarantine/isolation. Half the population will get it then its over."

Would you go for that? It would mean maybe 80,000 dead in NZ

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 9:45pm

whippersnappyr View Drop Down

Platinum

Joined: 14 Aug 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 1557

And the number of active cases steadily continues to decline. Media beat up. On the news tonight cases in Iran have apparently exploded.
They have 270 cases. Out of a population of 81 million

Posted: 28 Feb 2020 at 10:13pm

chris_gee

Silver

Joined: 24 Nov 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 213

Daniel K wrote:

A WHO report that recently came out showed the following numbers.

80% of those with the virus have presented mild cold symptoms.

3-5% of those with the virus ended up with the flu.

Of this 3-5% group, 2.5% of them have required hospitalization.

Honestly, you should be much, much more worried about dying from the common flu, or getting in your car, or getting king hit by some munter and cracking your skull after a night in the town.

Sorry I doubt that this is an accurate representation of the report.

True 80% have mild symptoms. 20% require hospitalisation and 5 % intensive care is my recollection.

Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 10:03am

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Titanium

Joined: 14 Oct 2013
Location: Franklin
Status: Offline
Points: 12792

This flu will be with us for along time, most proberly evole every yr as do all the others.
As with the others it will hit in critical fashion, the eldery and those who have pre existing conditions.
It just this one hits those with pre existing bit harder.
It doesnt hit the young as hard. And the pre existing seems to be conditions related to obesity , even thu obesity may not be the cause of those conditions.
Even the common flu hits those ppl harder and those with lung conditions.

End of the day it is just another flu going around the world that hits a bit harder.. we will have a vaccination for it when its near over...and maybe a follow up that covers the next version of the virus next yr.. as with out other flus

The big effect is going to be economic panic...

Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 11:48am

pjc

Titanium

Joined: 04 Apr 2010
Location: papakura
Status: Offline
Points: 12466

Just wait till it gets a hold in Africa.

So this virus cannot be airborne if you think about it logically,350 passengers + crew on ship tied up in Japan and 3 or 4 show symptom??yet the ventallation systems would be running so not all those onboard contract it??same as those on a plane,yet if it was measles chances are a high percentage would get them if not vaccinated against measles.

Or have I missed something.

Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 1:34pm

NZTurtle

Titanium

Joined: 19 Aug 2006
Location: Whangarei
Status: Offline
Points: 3293

No. Mortality rate about 0.05-0.1% from flu, Covid about 2-5%. Its early days though so things could change.

[/QUOTE]

Hmmmm. And that is the issue - maybe 30 times more fatal than the common flu.

Yes, there will be other factors such as pollution, health systems, etc. However, travel etc is much easier so containment will be harder.

There have been other flu historically with similar mortality rates to Coronavirus but not our common flu' (DYOR).

The economic impact is/will be significant and that will probably affect everyone, even if you don't have Covoid.

Posted: 29 Feb 2020 at 3:12pm

fish-feeder View Drop Down

Titanium

Joined: 29 Jan 2011
Location: Waiuku goodness
Status: Offline
Points: 3183

A little worse than the flu apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks

dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 10:34am

chris_gee

Silver

Joined: 24 Nov 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 213

On 26/2 the South Korean cases were 977. Today South Korea 813 new cases, total 3.150, 16 deaths, one case of reinfection. Partly the effect of congregations of close contact and partly high levels of testing - roughly 30k tests v USA 466. Still roughly up 330% in 4 days! Well above the expected rate of doubling in 7 days and compounding at 33% roughly daily not 10. Of course circumstances vary so it is illustrative not definitive.

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 3:09pm

chris_gee

Silver

Joined: 24 Nov 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 213

Update (1630ET): The BBC reports that in Daegu, South Korea, 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus. 1300 had symptoms & 600 did not. Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus . BUT out of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with coronavirus.Update (1630ET): Now 3500 odd as they update 3 times pd.

So one person led to the infection of say 1500 others. Proximity of course but....

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 8:42pm

brmbrm

Platinum

Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 2261

Well I will take my chances with the flu, but then every year I get the latest flu jab.

Now with the more deadly Covid-19 I might have to wait a year or two for that jab, or more, which is one reason why slowing the rate of infection down is so important.

First death in US: daughter lives a few miles from that, i was there 7 months ago. Self isolation in Tutukaka sounds pretty damn good

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:22pm

laidbackdood View Drop Down

Titanium

Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 4978

According to an acclaimed virologist here in Australia...he claims everyone will get it here in Australia....

The statistics(should we choose to believe them) claim less than 5% fatalities at the hands of this thing......thats not bad !

so in some ways i say " Ok...bring it on".......lets see what you got and lets get it over with because once you have had it....you cant get it again because your body builds anti bodies against every cold you get ,so you CANT get it again.......yes it can mutate and come back different next time....The sars component of this virus is where it will kill you !!!......so give up smoking right now folks(come with me if you want to live ! hahaha)....unless you want to drown in your own mucous !...this virus will look for your weakness and symptoms vary widely between humans......some people dont have any or just a sore throat....so you dont know how you are going to react....its almost like allergic symptoms.

But what the virologist above said = I dont agree with that.....not everyone will catch it......My son used to bring stuff back from day care @ 4 all the time and give it to my mrs but i never got them !

I havent had a cold for 2 years.........So i wont be wearing any fruking mask and i will be strong as an ox for when this prik shows up. Clap

p.s I have tricks up my sleeve too....In sydney they are stocking up and buying all the stuff off the shelves eg medicines/paracetamol/noodles/rice etc...shelves are empty.

Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:33pm

laidbackdood View Drop Down

Titanium

Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 4978

brmbrm wrote:

Well I will take my chances with the flu, but then every year I get the latest flu jab.

Now with the more deadly Covid-19 I might have to wait a year or two for that jab, or more, which is one reason why slowing the rate of infection down is so important.

First death in US: daughter lives a few miles from that, i was there 7 months ago. Self isolation in Tutukaka sounds pretty damn good

TRUE bottom bit...Can catch something else there instead LOL

Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.

Posted: 01 Mar 2020 at 9:33pm

brmbrm

Platinum

Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 2261

laidbackdood wrote:

....5% fatalities at the hands of this thing......thats not bad !

Err, really? That's about 250,000 dead people in NZ. About 1 dead person every 5 households. So for you, the house next door each side plus the house next door to that, one corpse in 2020. How many do you normally see to make it "not bad"? Life expectancy of 20 not bad? I disagree

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