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Covid 19 - fishing & anything related

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    Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:07pm
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Okay, perhaps it's not a fishing related topic, but the way I see it lots and lots of people are going to get lots of fishing time very soon.

This lurgy looks like it will shut down international travel, tourism and any gathering involving more than three people.

The world as we know it is about to take a big hit. I reckon schools will be closed before the end of March.

So what do you reckon... what's next?

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote smudge Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:23pm
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If there's no easing off then yeah, schools will be next. Crime will spike. i saw the first ever person I've seen in Waiuku wearing a face mask today. Concerts and other big events will suffer if the infection rate continues to rise. The UFC fight at Spark Arena had about a million people attend but as soon as we get our first domestic case things will change


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Post Options Post Options   Likes (2) Likes(2)   Quote whippersnappyr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2020 at 10:36pm
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you probably should just relax.  97% of the cases and 99% of the deaths are in mainland China.  We’ve had SARS, MERS and a couple of years ago everyone was worried about Zika. These things come and go.

To give some context the CDC in the US estimates that 29 million Americans have gotten the flu so far this winter with 280,000 hospitalised and 16,000 deaths.  And that’s just in the US.


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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 8:44am
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High infection rate, low death rate.. from my understanding lower than the normal flu.
And then from what I understand is those who are hit hard have other issues ranging from over weight and other dietary and fitness issues.
 On that basis add into that NZ has one of the highest rates of dietary, over weight and fitness  related deases in the world.
Should be worried? maybe so.

As to economic effects..
 Tourism .. A 1400 km road trip...we took our time and only 2 cars passed us and where followed by other cars not much more than that.. no slow tourist vans... camp/cabin sites MT.

Wondering how our charter guys are doing.. most likely ok this week due to Nationals.

Banks and economists have been putting out a few negative comments in last few weeks.. and all along the same lines. Even if Corona does hit us personally.

Throw the longer term effects of Trump and his trade wars.. which includes NZ.. that are just starting to kick in, and Corona more immediate and medium term effects..
An infrastructure that is struggling to keep up with population growth.. including energy..

A 'she will be right' attitude going into possibly another situation as in the late 60s and 70s with a majority of population that has never experienced such things..
 bit of a worry..
And hope to be wrong.



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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote pompey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 11:52am
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This is building into a real big issue. I don't believe the infection and death rate reports out of China. They will be way worse. Some populations will be hit very hard. 
I think we will have the virus here soon if its not already here. We have done virtually nothing, as usual relying on being PC and not offending anyone and not wanting to impact our income by taking a tougher stand.
At the moment we have a health system unable to cope with many routine illnesses. Hospitals are poorly maintained, bulging at the seams and we have staffing issues. Will we cope with a coronavirus outbreak with our current health system?
We won't.
The economic cost will be huge. Many will loose jobs, businesses will go under, stock markets will tumble and so will pension funds. A re-calibration of asset values is right upon us.
On top of all this I have zero faith in any Govt departments and politicians to provide the necessary leadership.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote puff Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 11:57am
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In a couple of years it will be another type of virus...
Bird..... swine...... corona..... next
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (2) Likes(2)   Quote fish-feeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 12:12pm
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A country doesn't quarentine 750million for just a flu.. the numbers out of China is crap. China is basically commiting economic suicide "for a flu". 4 Chinese virus researchers were caught stealing samples.out.of Canada a while back,and their level 4 bio warfare lab is less than 300mtrs from the wet market it is said to come from. Coincidence?
No vaccine,no immunity,up to 25 day incubation period...... quarentine is a waste of time,this will be worldwide already. Like Spanish flu,it will hit in waves,that's what makes it so dangerous,the first wave will knock the immune system into overdrive,then the second infection will kill the weak. I don't believe what any govt is saying about this virus.
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (3) Likes(3)   Quote pjc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 1:29pm
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Close the border.Go back to manufacturing googds and food in NZ no importation.

The logging industry is crying bad luck,why export whole logs when we can dress and mill then supply the timber,Oh silly me China does not want to the price they want to use their cheap/free labour.

As for the cray fisherman feed the domestic market first at a reasonable rate,whats left then export.
some catch fish seems I like to feed them so you can catch them.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Mr Moritz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 3:03pm
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I wonder how the Olympic Games will get on. Only four months to go, I don't think Coronavirus will be gone by then. Suspect they will postpone them...
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote fish-feeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 3:10pm
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This virus will be with us forever,we know stuff all about it,and the countries that do know are not sharing info transparently. No vaccine for at least 18mnths. I don't think our health system is ready for the ****storm that is coming. China has alot to answer for in their shady tactics in hiding this before it got to this stage. It will take years for things to get back to normal.
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:10pm
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Rest assured we are not given the true picture. This is potentially more serious than we are told. Alot of commentators are saying this was an accidental  release of a bio weapon. Who knows.The lab for dangerous and contageous disease was just down the road from the markets.

No one shuts down a whole country if not serious.
Marc Lipstich,a Harvard professor has predicted that between 40 & 70 % of the worlds population will be effected by this virus.
Already we are seeing broken supply chains. Both Hyundai and Nissan have closed plants due to components  not being available.
Over 1 trillion was shaved off the dow last night.
A very substantial part of the worlds  medicines come from china.
We are very reliant on them.
This will be a wakeup call for the globalists.
Italy is being isolated from the rest of europe. Sth Korea has just put a city of over 2 million into lockdown. Iran badly effected.This is serious stuff.
And ,yes our economy will be badly effected,regardless if the virus gets here or not
Find our media does not give much coverage.
Zerohedge.com has been giving very comprehensive coverage . Best i have seen with multiple new articles daily.

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Muppet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:33pm
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It is no Spanish flu.

One thing is for sure China needs to sort out it's relationship with animals. Namely the filthy wild market places that breed these things.

Maybe they could learn that rhino horn has no magic properties, bats, monkey brains and all that other weird stuff too.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:41pm
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Suggest read up on the flu pandemic with the return of solders from France at the end of WW1...and the death rate , economic consequense etc
 Not just the effects in NZ but around the world.
 Those days no drugs to treat symptoms etc.

Funny how things dont change, we just forget ..

And ,yes our economy will be badly effected,regardless if the virus gets here or not

yep saying in to 70s "America sneezes NZ goes into recession"  The Briton joining the ECC didnt help either.
 Then there was 1929 .. wasnt wall street that caused the rest of the world to go into depression , was the US government going into isolation policies. Polices not to different from Trumps antics... on top of corona


On top of all this I have zero faith in any Govt departments and politicians to provide the necessary leadership.

Agree.. we have now have a house full of professional politicians.. ppl with degrees in communication who are educated and trained spill BS in a very believable manner to get re elected.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote fish-feeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 5:51pm
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I feel the US CDC and the WHO are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at the moment. I've seen video of portable crematoriums made from shipping containers and other odd things. Have a look on windy and go to SO2 emissions coming out of China at the moment. Sulpher dioxide is produced by burning organic matter,could be pets they are known to be killing,I don't know . Apparently there's a theory that someone took a test animal home to eat cause of swine and bird flu knocking down the amount of protein available in China at the moment,and the rest is Chinese whispers.
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote puff Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 10:14pm
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote whippersnappyr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2020 at 10:53pm
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Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

I feel the US CDC and the WHO are rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at the moment. I've seen video of portable crematoriums made from shipping containers and other odd things. Have a look on windy and go to SO2 emissions coming out of China at the moment. Sulpher dioxide is produced by burning organic matter,could be pets they are known to be killing,I don't know . Apparently there's a theory that someone took a test animal home to eat cause of swine and bird flu knocking down the amount of protein available in China at the moment,and the rest is Chinese whispers.

You need to get a grip man. Why is it every news story is an excuse for some people to completely wig out. 
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote chris_gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 2:25am
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Some ill informed opinions so far. Even with incomplete knowledge to date there is plenty of reasonable analysis available. The death rate seems about 2.3% much higher in the 20% with severe infections. This far higher than the flu .05%.
To compare existing deaths from the flu with this misses the point, as is saying it is largely confined to China.
It seems like the cases double in just under a week and China had a head start by almost two months.
The progression is  2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 ....... and on to a very large number in months.
The Korean rate suggests they have gone from 1-2 to a thousand in a few weeks
That is the problem and that it is infectious without symptoms eg the Italian dr self managing a supposed cold leading to the lockdown of a resort of a thousand potential contacts.
Those interested in being better informed might start with https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote FishMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 6:00am
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Good post Chris.

The only thing about this virus that isn't bad is that young healthy people have not been adversely affected by it.

At the present time it must be in New Zealand and most other places in the world. Very soon it is going to explode everywhere. There is virtually nothing we can do about it except stay at home and pull the curtains.

The travel bans probably won't last, simply because every country will have it.

There is however a great dilemma brewing for tiny nations that rely on tourism. Kiribati has denied entry to anyone from any country that has coronavirus cases. That included all the fly fishers from the United States that are the mainstay of their economy. Very soon they will have to make the call on whether to close their borders entirely. The measles disaster that hit Samoa will be very fresh in their minds. Once they lose the air link through there being closed borders who is to say that the air link will ever return.

Interesting times...


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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote laidbackdood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 6:25am
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My Two cents worth.......I will go down a different route IE.....who is most susceptible....
From what i have been reading...men are most susceptible...with men over 50 the highest......Pre existing conditions  and smokers are most at risk because its main nasty component is the sars it contains.
Its also not a one size fits all either....with many people being infected and having no symptoms at all.....it all depends on how it wants to attack you but if it decides on ****ing your lungs....you could well suffocate in your own mucous !
some people have mild symptoms and in fact the number of people who it destroys in relation is quite low....They are making the fastest progress ever made on finding a vaccine ....if they had continued with their research after the sars bug....they would probably be very much closer to finding a vaccine right now but because sars abated.....they left the research behind and didnt continue on with it.....its not as simple as here a vaccine,lets get on to it....it has to be field tested and made sure it is safe for everyone......I am in Perth and there hasnt been one case here yet.....Probably because we are the most isolated city in the world and its so ****ing hot right now ...that no **** wants to come here !!......thats a bonus but its completely screwed the tourism business here(which i am part of)....it will turn up here ...sooner or later.Confused
Once the idiots turn up..Im outta here...No time for Drama Queens.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote whippersnappyr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Feb 2020 at 8:04am
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Originally posted by chris_gee chris_gee wrote:

Some ill informed opinions so far. Even with incomplete knowledge to date there is plenty of reasonable analysis available. The death rate seems about 2.3% much higher in the 20% with severe infections. This far higher than the flu .05%.
To compare existing deaths from the flu with this misses the point, as is saying it is largely confined to China.
It seems like the cases double in just under a week and China had a head start by almost two months.
The progression is  2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 ....... and on to a very large number in months.
The Korean rate suggests they have gone from 1-2 to a thousand in a few weeks
That is the problem and that it is infectious without symptoms eg the Italian dr self managing a supposed cold leading to the lockdown of a resort of a thousand potential contacts.
Those interested in being better informed might start with https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Contrary to what you say (there are 800 cases in KR not 1-2k) and the data suggest that we are getting on top of it as the number of new infections has been on the decline since early Feb. the spike in the chart is a one time adjustment when there weren’t enough test kits available so new cases were counted based on a clinical diagnosis only (so not very accurate).
 


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