FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Topic ClosedAuckland will be back into Level 3 lockdown

Page  <1 23456 7>
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 1:52pm
Skoti View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 08 Jul 2006
Location: Waiuku
Status: Offline
Points: 4226
I'm thinking we will be goung to level 4 very soon .
The four that tested + on tuesday have a link to one of my co-workers , that co-worker was stood down from work pending a test .
I just got a call from work saying to stay home , inform my staff to stay home and wait further instructions .
Co worker is a truck driver at my site , at the completion of his shift he parked his truck in the way of some material , I had to shift his truck , placing my hands where his hands had been .
I'm sure I didn't wash my hands after , don't even know what I did with my hands after , maybe picked my nose ....
Bugger ......Ouch
I AM THE BEAST ! !
Check out Manukau Harbour Fishing on FaceBook
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:07pm
whippersnappyr View Drop Down
Platinum
Platinum


Joined: 14 Aug 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 1076
Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:09pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
The unfortunate bit is Akl is probably going to bear the brunt of these temp lockdowns over an extended period. Very disruptive for Akl. But it has the bulk of the isolation facilities and the primary airlink. Not to mention the port.
So any failures in the system most likely to happen in Akl.
poor buggers in hospitality business. on/off/on/off.
Alan

Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:11pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
The other problem tho is where did this cluster get infected? Almost certain there is a carrier out there that hasn't been picked up yet.
Hard to explain otherwise. Almost like we need to find another cluster somewhere - soon.
Alan
Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:13pm
Skoti View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 08 Jul 2006
Location: Waiuku
Status: Offline
Points: 4226
Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Skoti that is all the same cluster though.  It is way to get on top of it and isolate everyone.  The danger is if someone is positive tomorrow who have no obvious connection the current cluster.  That would be bad in terms of our chances of getting out of 3 in AKL
That's true , though the four from Tuesday got it from somewhere unknown at this stage .
I AM THE BEAST ! !
Check out Manukau Harbour Fishing on FaceBook
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:17pm
cirrus View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 07 May 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 9521
Ardern promised eradication. She failed.  Will she own it.

Proves that our past level 4 failed.
To do the same and expect different results would be bonkers.
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 2:18pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
Alan
Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:09pm
Fishb8 View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 17 Jul 2002
Location: Hamilton
Status: Offline
Points: 8897
Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

Daughter in SI just informed me they believe there is a case in Timaru.
If so... Game Over.
Alan
We had loads of cases in S Island (and North) and we got over them.
Not game over but restart after a drinks break.
Be yourself; everyone else is already taken
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:16pm
Fishb8 View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 17 Jul 2002
Location: Hamilton
Status: Offline
Points: 8897
Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

This govt needs to be held accountable for their mistakes.......
Yes they do.
Have you seen Covid news from overseas?
99% of governments should be held accountable.
Be yourself; everyone else is already taken
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:23pm
whippersnappyr View Drop Down
Platinum
Platinum


Joined: 14 Aug 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 1076
Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
Alan

Alan the positive predictive value of a test, even one with high specificity like the covid PCR depends on the prevalence of the disease. Since this is extremely low in New Zealand, there will be quite a few false positives.




Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:24pm
Muppet View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 26 May 2004
Location: North Shore
Status: Offline
Points: 17143
No one else is going for elimination.
And we have it easier to control.
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:38pm
Muppet View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 26 May 2004
Location: North Shore
Status: Offline
Points: 17143
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 3:50pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
Originally posted by Fishb8 Fishb8 wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

Daughter in SI just informed me they believe there is a case in Timaru.
If so... Game Over.
Alan
We had loads of cases in S Island (and North) and we got over them.
Not game over but restart after a drinks break.
Well, yes - what I was meaning was game over in terms of just Akl lockdown. Everybody back to where we were previously. No fishing for any of us. But hopefully not.
Alan
Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:01pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
Originally posted by whippersnappyr whippersnappyr wrote:

Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/122435984/false-positive-covid19-case-in-wellington

So they got a +ve test in Wgtn. Retest gave a -ve and they are discarding the + result in favour of the -ve. The erroneous rate of recording the virus when it is not present is a fraction of a %. near 100% reliable when it gets a +ve. The failure rate of getting -ves when the virus is actually present is between 15-20%. And they prefer to accept that result. Hard to figure.
Alan

Alan the positive predictive value of a test, even one with high specificity like the covid PCR depends on the prevalence of the disease. Since this is extremely low in New Zealand, there will be quite a few false positives.

Whprsnpr - can you explain that again? The test works on replicating the virus DNA. So if it misses the DNA in a swab you can get an erroneous -ve - stats say 15-20%.
On the other hand to get the +ve it has to find traces of the DNA, and replicate it. And does this with 99+% accuracy. So when it gets a +ve, it is 99+% likely the result is good.
Can you explain your summary.
Regards
Alan




Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:05pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
Originally posted by Muppet Muppet wrote:

https://www.aier.org/article/authoritarianism-in-auckland/
That is a great read.
There is no script for this. The jury must still be out. And Sweden is not a clear winner - yet.
but NZ may get left in a hole. Clearly the strategy is about hope for a vaccine.
But there are a lot of major hurdles to that strategy - and not just a reliable vaccine. I suspect a vaccine is not actually going to change things a lot.
Alan
Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:21pm
SufixRockMan View Drop Down
Platinum
Platinum
Avatar

Joined: 02 May 2010
Location: Nelson
Status: Offline
Points: 2874
Reading these kind of articles and seeing the posts in here does make me wonder if we should let the boomer remover do it's thing. The savings in pensions could be used to pay back the national debt.
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:50pm
Alan L View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium


Joined: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Hastings
Status: Offline
Points: 3411
The Minister of Kindness won't have a bar of that.
But one of the issues with a vaccine is it works least on those with weak(er)  immune system - ie the elderly. So they are still going to be at enhanced risk while the pandemic continues around the globe.
But your plan has some merit - now all you need to do is get elected on it.
Alan
Legasea Legend member
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:54pm
FISHBYFLY View Drop Down
Platinum
Platinum
Avatar

Joined: 27 Jan 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 2273
Second that motoin,
All say 'I",
Motoin is passed,
Beer
By Fly, Nothing Else,Just Fly
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 4:56pm
Muppet View Drop Down
Titanium
Titanium
Avatar

Joined: 26 May 2004
Location: North Shore
Status: Offline
Points: 17143
Well it is a different POV. One we will have to take seriously if you want some sort of normal life and not road blocks either end of the city.

Add to the fact we are officially skint with the last 40 billion being printed by the RB. Start getting used to the idea of hyperinflation.

Try beating it out when the money stops.
Back to Top
Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:01pm
DIY View Drop Down
Silver
Silver


Joined: 20 Apr 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 329
Is anyone else annoyed that Tipping Point and the Chase has been ruined by the ‘Unite Against Covid’ banner popping up and obscuring the answers at the bottom of the screen. Seems to be affecting every aspect of our lives.
Oh what a smasher - two eggs and a rasher!
Back to Top
Page  <1 23456 7>
Forum Jump
Forum Permissions View Drop Down


This page was generated in 0.145 seconds.