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Topic Closed5 Million fingered again. and again and again..

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Aug 2020 at 8:17pm
Alan L View Drop Down
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One reason (prob main one) new car sales are up and housing market strong is our record immigration numbers. 30+000 kiwis crossed the border in last few months. Normal immigration numbers around 80k pa.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Aug 2020 at 8:33pm
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I saw the luxury car sales were up.
To be fair if I was wealthy enough and wanted to contribute a bit of tax to the cause it is a cool way lmao.
Or a boat.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Aug 2020 at 8:38pm
Alan L View Drop Down
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So if people are thinking things are hunky dory out there, here are the simple numbers. 0.5M kiwis still on the wage subsidy. That means all those employers (unless rorting the system) are trading at 40% or more, reduced turnover. Not flash. Then there would be a large number of employees in businesses trading at  39% and less  below the threshold. They won't show in the stats. Yet. Not all will fail - but far from flash.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Aug 2020 at 9:01pm
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

So if people are thinking things are hunky dory out there, here are the simple numbers. 0.5M kiwis still on the wage subsidy. That means all those employers (unless rorting the system) are trading at 40% or more, reduced turnover. Not flash. Then there would be a large number of employees in businesses trading at  39% and less  below the threshold. They won't show in the stats. Yet. Not all will fail - but far from flash.
Alan

I agree with you Alan. Some of the businesses that were on the brink before lockdown are still unsustainable now and are only propped up with the subsidies.
Our main company office had >650 people in on a daily basis prior to covid which then changed the way we thought work should be conducted. 

Now there would be less than 50% as some teams choose to vary office days with work from home alternatives.
This has had quite an effect on local cafes and eateries that often ask me when everyone will be back in the building. 
Other large office buildings in the area are also opting for less days in the office.

Some of the discretionary spend is the result of no international travel so this travel money is being spent on home improvements, up market audio systems, cars etc.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 5:45am
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Oh yeah I had a conversation with someone who works at Mitre10 yesterday. People are spending 1000's on home improvement stuff for sure.

But what is crazy in the amount of Air Points being spent there as currency. And the customers are hustling on prices, which I thought fair enough.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 6:21am
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wage subs come off Sept 1.  According to Labour unemployment  is at 4%.... Way less than expected. Im not sure if they have worked out that they are paying an xtra half million people the dole. True stats wont come in until November..... After cindy has swept to power again. What a set-up.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 7:21am
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I would think lots who are on the subsidy are in the tourist industry. And some will be businesses who have simply done the maths and realised they would rather have a prolonged holiday on part pay than work the full hours for a bit more in uncertain times. The subsidy is low risk. Then I am sure there will also be a few small business owners who are claiming the subsidy but still working - perhaps stockpiling product for after the subsidy finishes.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 7:47am
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No way would nearly 70% of Auckland subsidy is tourism driven.

How long will prolonged be though, since 68% of Kiwis don't want borders reopened.

Sitting in the cafe I frequent turnover down 20-25% from last year. Yet are still hiring and lamenting the attitude of most they try.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 8:24am
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It seems some of you don’t understand how the Wage subsidy extension works. A company just had to show a 40% decline in revenues for a 30 day period compared to the prior year that was COVID related.  That wouldn’t have been that hard in late May through June.

Then you get the payment in advance for the next 8 weeks for your employees. So the fact that so many are on the subsidy is not automatically a measurement of people who are about to lose their jobs.  Undoubtedly some will.

On the other hand if demand rebounded many if not most businesses would be back to normal. The anecdotes shared above along with my own experience is backed up by the spending data.  Things are actually better than normal for plenty of businesses.

And it goes without saying that people being paid the wage subsidy which lets face it is not much money per week are most unlikely to be the ones spending up on home improvements, luxury cars etc..

So I’m cautiously optimistic that  things won’t be so bad after all. No doubt there will still be considerable pain for some and unemployment etc will still rise.  However unlike a natural disaster, there is no damaged infrastructure etc..

Yes there are big challenges still but the doom and gloom merchants are likely wrong
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 9:15am
Alan L View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 9:31am
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As it happens, we are in the tourist business and our figures are 30% or more above the same time previous years.

But then we never hunted for the overseas market simply because it was dumb to put all of your eggs etc etc, which why the greedier conglomerates are suffering.

We did not bother claiming any subsidies during lock-down as we very quickly understood that the pay-back would hurt.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:06am
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Bloomfield has issued a warning. Prepare for a second wave of covid.

The govt has failed us. A second wave can only come through the border. On a almost daily basis we are importing cases. And this after huge sacrifice by new zealanders. Or is this rule by fear ,a clever election plan .
Or do they know something we dont know.

When wage subsidies end we will see the true impact of covid 19.

$ 60 billion debt for 5 million people. Will take generations of time to deal with that.
Remember Greece. Remember Venezuela.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:42am
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Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Bloomfield has issued a warning. Prepare for a second wave of covid.

The govt has failed us. A second wave can only come through the border. On a almost daily basis we are importing cases. And this after huge sacrifice by new zealanders. Or is this rule by fear,a clever election plan .
Or do they know something we dont know.

When wage subsidies end we will see the true impact of covid 19.

$ 60 billion debt for 5 million people. Will take generations of time to deal with that.
Remember greece. Remember venezuela.

You are quite the alarmist.  Not sure what you mean by importing cases on a daily basis.  Would you prefer that NZers are not allowed to their own country?

You are right on one thing.  The real issue is the debt.  This is why fiscal management going forward is so critical.  A labour government which is almost certain will be very bad for New Zealand from a fiscal management point of view.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:43am
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When you think of it , it is inevitable while we keep importing it.
Basically about 1% of those crossing the border are infected.
They have even reinstated compassionate exemption from isolation (remember Thelma and Louise). A bunch have tested +ve on day 12 (as compared to day 3). What if they had been out on compassionate grounds in the community? Then you have all the isolation workers, airline crews etc. It is only a matter of time. Roulette basically.
The Govt intends to keep borrowing for the next yr or two. The numbers will be bigger than $60B.
As for unemployment stats, we will never know the real numbers. They are grossly fudged - now (wage subsidy) and after Sept. The Govt intends throwing money at particular businesses and industry sectors (Hackett got $10M). This is unemployment in a different name and wont appear in those stats. Paid to stay at home and sharpen your pencil basically.
Language schools is one sector, Travel agents have their hand out for support post Sept, Universities. So the unemployment stats will always be 'better than expected'. Manufactured to 'acceptable' numbers. If you weigh up both sides of the ledger - $s for supported industries vs $s for dole queue post Sept, the supported industries may be a sizeable chunk of the ledger.
Corosanta - great news, heartening to hear - and that a future proof strategy has worked for you. You must be feeling quite good about not chasing all the easy bucks.
Alan 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:44am
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I would have thought 5 months was plenty of time for kiwis to get back to nz after Winston put the word out in mid march., obviously not eh.
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:45am
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Originally posted by Alan L Alan L wrote:

I dont think Grant Robertson agrees with you.


Alan
"Robertson would not provide his own estimate of what unemployment would reach in the September quarter, saying that “most economists are predicting that things are not as bad as were originally forecast”.

Seems like he is agreeing with me
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 10:46am
Alan L View Drop Down
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Originally posted by fish-feeder fish-feeder wrote:

I would have thought 5 months was plenty of time for kiwis to get back to nz after Winston put the word out in mid march., obviously not eh.

There is a very big queue. Bottleneck at quarantine.
Alan
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 3:23pm
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Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Bloomfield has issued a warning. Prepare for a second wave of covid.

The govt has failed us. A second wave can only come through the border. On a almost daily basis we are importing cases. And this after huge sacrifice by new zealanders. Or is this rule by fear,a clever election plan .
Or do they know something we dont know.

When wage subsidies end we will see the true impact of covid 19.

$ 60 billion debt for 5 million people. Will take generations of time to deal with that.
Remember greece. Remember venezuela.
     OMG the sky is falling in chicken little
slowly going where everyone else has already been
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 6:04pm
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Friggen Labour once again trying to put fear into peoples mind going into the election.
It really is truly pathetic.   All they have is Covid 19. If it wasnt for that ...... They would would be a one term government for sure.
All this talk now we should all start preparing again for a 2nd wave.... Whats happening now in Victoria has played right into there hands.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 8:59pm
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Originally posted by cirrus cirrus wrote:

Bloomfield has issued a warning. Prepare for a second wave of covid.

The govt has failed us. A second wave can only come through the border. On a almost daily basis we are importing cases. And this after huge sacrifice by new zealanders. Or is this rule by fear ,a clever election plan .
Or do they know something we dont know.

When wage subsidies end we will see the true impact of covid 19.

$ 60 billion debt for 5 million people. Will take generations of time to deal with that.
Remember Greece. Remember Venezuela.

Yeah I was thinking that.
We never really had a first wave per se yet they are telling us to get ready for a second one.
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