weather maps are a guide only,i make my mind up on the day,last weekend perfect.

http://www.windfinder.com/

Swell map.. forget the swell..  make use of the wind map and take particular not of direction and wind speed of the wind retaliation to the tide/ current run and where u intend to go... and direction and distance between iso bars
With all the islands , current directions, then throw in lea of the land.. then on that the valleys...one with just a little experience and common sense can reliably plan out trip 3 to 7 days ahead.
BUT keep in mind that late winter early spring tends to be unstable... eg Sun  and today, 6 days ago was good, breaking up tomorrow, clearing again late thursday / frid... and same around mid / late march
The systems time frames slowed down by  last frid by 24 hrs (cancelled monday) With NNE coming down into the gulf.. on the other hand reasonably calm in the Tamaki straight .. if u are prepared to put up with the rain.

In my books reliable weather forecasting is when one can plan out a trip 5 to 7 days ahead, and watching the maps , note any changes and if necessary still be able to give 3 to 4 days notice of cancelling ... reliably

Here is an example of how location s can be so very different.
One can pull out of Maraeti.. dead calm....200ms out hit heavy chop, breaking crests....hit the bottom end Waiheke channel , mirror flat right out to the otherside of Shagg rock in the Furth on a outgoing tide... wind change to a SE and pick up with a tide change and all outside the islands chops up nasty, chop back thru the channel and rather smooth back across the Tamaki Channel

But hey.. look at the short weather forcast before going out.. u will know when tide changes and when the wing moves around and plan accordingly.

Its not rocket science... thats all done for us by NASA and the weather computer models... we just add localised knowledge and commonsence.

Today has been the 4th postponement we have made in 3 +yrs..all with at least 3 days notice....and we get out quite a few times each month all yr round.

So right now.. I will stick my neck out here.
Tue nope
But around 11pm/ midnight tues looking good.. would make sure back in around 7am thurs morning.. all NW breezes..good east coast stuff, but expect a little chop when wind against current.
Then around 3am Frid looking good to the afternoon, but watch the chop east end Tamaki straight. if wind against tide.. but its not in the arvo,
Sat sunday changeable
With what looks like a nice window next monday / tues

I have said 5 to 7 days one can plan out and reliably cancel 3 days before espec  at this time of yr...
Weather either slows down.. usually or speeds up coming across the Tasman
Here is Frids wind/ iso bars

Here is the current iso bar/ wind run map for 6am Frid.

Thats good enough to plan a trip out ...

predict wind and metsrve both have nw 25+ so saturday not looking good and rain 

Steps wrote: Friday : Becoming northerly 30 knots and rain setting in. Lets see whose right " steps" Right??? And Who is "who" I have said 5 to 7 days one can plan out and reliably cancel 3 days before espec  at this time of yr... Weather either slows down.. usually or speeds up coming across the Tasman Here is Frids wind/ iso bars Here is the current iso bar/ wind run map for 6am Frid. Thats good enough to plan a trip out ...

Even swell map predicts not good.