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Cyclone Gita

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    Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 8:21am
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Northland currently sitting in the stream of very wet tropical air streaming off Cyclone Gita. Some roads flooded, others with slips across them, a few schools closed. Me sitting with a cup of tea enjoying the balmy air on a covered deck Smile 

Looks like it is going to move into the Tasman Sea though and the bulk of the Cyclone's influence will be Auckland south for the rest of the week. Enjoy!
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Clifftastic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 8:50am
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Northland currently sitting in the stream of very wet tropical air streaming off Cyclone Gita.

 ???
 At the moment we are between a high thats moved way out into the east and a huge high that covers all Aussie thru to us. Gita is still up in the NE .. thu the very 1st bits of leading trail will come in this evening.
 The high humidity is from the high out to the east and due to the high surface water temps.
 I have been watching the possible formation then formation of Gita since  tues/ wed last week.. initially thinking would come down around Frid Thru Sunday some time.. IF formed up
 There has also been a large low forming out  SW ,Sth of Tazzy, moving in.. That is below the roaring 40s parallel and colder water temps so we may see some rain / effects in the Sth around sat Sunday, then dissolve up.
The effects of Gita , 1st rain we should see coming in Sunday Arvo up north. But Gita herself shouldnt arrive up nth till early hrs of next Tuesday.. reaching off the west coast tues midday late arvo some time..

 This coming down off the west coast means NW winds.. NW winds means storm surge down into the Hauraki gulf, firth, and other harbours facing Nth  to NE.
 With high tide Auckland east coast around 11am tues, little over 3m. and the next (smaller) again around mid night, we may see the usually flooding  at the usual places along Tamaki drive...and possible Kawakawa/ Firth areas.
I would have sand bags ready filled anyway.

 Then Wed would expect it to move east cross the country on or below the 40th parallel. Thats going to see some serious winds and rain across the middle of the country if it maintains its intensity in that time.
 That is likely to bring the SSE to SE into Wellington harbour and Cook Straight next Wed... check your local tide times and where the storm is at...fortunately not overly high or king tides.

 But hey thats  that 8/10 days out, so expect change in intensity and the pattern to slow or speed up 8 to 30 hrs in its timing.
 The good news
Watch the weather window open for tomorrow , better Thursday , possible carry to Friday.
Then again the 24 hr to couple days after it has past (late next week) with light to no breeze from SSW to SW

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Bounty Hunter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 10:36am
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Originally posted by FishMan FishMan wrote:

Northland currently sitting in the stream of very wet tropical air streaming off Cyclone Gita. Some roads flooded, others with slips across them, a few schools closed. Me sitting with a cup of tea enjoying the balmy air on a covered deck Smile 

Looks like it is going to move into the Tasman Sea though and the bulk of the Cyclone's influence will be Auckland south for the rest of the week. Enjoy!

sounds like there has been a big slip on Lemons Hill south of Opua - im coming through here tomorrow - do you have any more info on this?
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 11:36am
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sounds like there has been a big slip on Lemons Hill south of Opua - im coming through here tomorrow - do you have any more info on this?

 yep looks like it and several more further sth

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote muchalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 7:29pm
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It's stopped raining! (Kerikeri 7pm)

I have friends arriving on a cruise ship, next Tuesday- in the BOI....... potentially may be ship bound if Gita turns up.

I had planned to go to Russell today, for a colour touch up to my Xmas tattoo ( and a surreptitious peek at a Zego) but as it turned out, ended up getting inked up in Kerikeri.
SH 11 Opua to Kawakawa is indeed closed due to a slip.
It may be open now looking at AA roadwatch

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote fish-feeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 8:02pm
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Originally posted by muchalls muchalls wrote:

It's stopped raining! (Kerikeri 7pm)

I have friends arriving on a cruise ship, next Tuesday- in the BOI....... potentially may be ship bound if Gita turns up.

I had planned to go to Russell today, for a colour touch up to my Xmas tattoo ( and a surreptitious peek at a Zego) but as it turned out, ended up getting inked up in Kerikeri.
SH 11 Opua to Kawakawa is indeed closed due to a slip.
It may be open now looking at AA roadwatch



From a tattooist of 30 years,you may want to dodge getting tattooed in such humid weather,it can sometimes drag out the healing period depending on how much you sweat,outline is no problem but heavy shading and colour work (depending on colours) have a tendency to take longer to heal. And a word of friendly advice,its nice to ask the artist of the original piece if he/she minds you getting it finished by another artist,some artists don't like others taking credit for work by others. What did you have done? Biff up some pics :)
dont get my personality mixed up with my attitude,my personality is me,my attitude depends on you.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote muchalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 8:49pm
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Hi, thanks. It was a touch up/ colour infill to the one I had done in December. Living in an aircon house, aircon. at work too!
Done by Pete from Bay of Islands Ink, a true professional.
Theme- thistle and rose
""The Thistle and Rose was inspired by the marriage of King James IV of Scotland to Princess Margaret Tudor of England.The Thistle represented King James, and the Rose represented Princess Margaret"
Initial photo, I'll post again once the re-inking has healed.
Looking even better now....

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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote muchalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2018 at 8:51pm
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And for the record, I went from "tattoo's? Nice, but not for me....." to "what should I get on my other shoulder?"
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote muchalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2018 at 10:16pm
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Bugger!
"At the same time, State Highway 11 is expected to be closed for at least two weeks due to a giant slip on Lemon's Hill near Kawakawa"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11994403
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (0) Likes(0)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 2018 at 12:08pm
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Seems a lot of the media is selling newspapers rather than doing homework ...
 Talk of Storm surge with Gina.. yeah right...
Gina is expected to hit nrth / Auckalnd miday tues to mid night.
 That is on out going tides/ low tides for the east coast. and more or less the same west coast, thu as head south high tides will get closer to the westerlies..
None of these tides are high or king type tides.

Rain.. and most of the storm is gong to be below the 40th parallel ( the roaring forties').. Taranaki to east cape.
 Stuff all above , but maybe a few isolated heavy dumps... basically same as what we have been getting in last couple months any way..

 In general a storm go down the west side NZ, we get N And NW westerlies into the east coast harbours , combine with high/ king tides.. coastal storm surge... dig the sandbags out
 This is not the case here.. tide missing and quite a way off shore before heading in to cross the lower parts..

 Storm heads down east coast.  Thats Sth / Sw westerlies, any harbours that open up to that direct.. eg Wellington.. combine with storm surge and high/ king tides.. dig sand bags out.

Anything coming down, inland.. its rivers, streams

 Thats not complicated.. how do the media get something like this so wrong stating storm surges when smaller tides AND storm hits on outgoing/ low tide and finished before the next high...
 So mon late arvo rain hits below 40th parrell ..
 Wind, all places comes in around miday tues
Nth of the roaring 40s all over by tues midnight.. most prob a bit of anon event.
Sth of the roaring 40s to wellington , all over early wed morning. Sth island gets hit with the main force.. wind/ rain tues arvo thru wed morning..
 Then there is another storm brewing out sth of tazzy, and could just follow the remains of Gita striaght in behind it.. extending the bad roaring 40s weather right thru to  Sunday/ monday week. 8 / 10 days out.

 While thats happening...

 The important stuff...
 Auckland nrth looks like the wed / tues weather window delayed to next friday...going thru to at least monday/ tuesday week.. 8 /10 days out.
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Post Options Post Options   Likes (1) Likes(1)   Quote Steps Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Feb 2018 at 1:31pm
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Looks like Gita coming in  5 or 6 hrs earlier than expected a few days ago and little closer ...
Auckland expect around  day break tomorrow.. more rain and wind than before, all over by midnight.
 high tide around 11am miday, not a high high or king this time, possible storm surge , gita being closer to land and Ntherlies blowing straight down into the gulf, Plus significant swell thats been building off shore for a few days now...When those waves hit shallow water or land they will lift above the 2m very easy.
 Throw in a few swollen streams and rivers, from heavier than predicted rain a few days ago these tidal levels could get a bit of a worry.

Rest of the country also going to get hit harder than originally expected ..

 So if you had sand bags last time.. get them out.. If got flooded and should have them... you would have got some just in case right?
 I was not going to drop the boat bimini as at a day or so ago... going to drop it this arvo
And those on moorings , I suggest check those and mention to those moored around you...
 Paul lost his boat because of others on insecure moorings...

If heading to work tomorrow, go early.. or have a sickie.
 And tomorrow arvo time to go home, storm in Auckland will be easing back, but expect a lot storm stuff to still be current and on going for heading home 4/ 5pm onwards.

 The important stuff
 Roll on Frids weather window... we have cancelled Thursdays, but if going in off the east coat.. the bays etc, you will be nicely  in the lea of land from just after day break..but still expect a good ocean swell with a 12/ 15m period
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